Sunday, February 6, 2011

Advantage View:The Outlook For Commercial Real Estate

Commercial real estate investment trusts have done very well the past year.Brian Stutland of Stutland Volatility Group thinks they continue to do well.
Although rising long term yields may challenge commercial REITs,foreign investors may help boost commercial real estate.Watch the yield on the 30 year Treasury bond.
The commercial real estate supply is starting to come off the market,pushing prices higher.That would tend to favor commercial REITs such as Boston Properties and Brookfield Office Properties.
Stutland Volatility Group creates wealth by capitalizing on market volatility,using options to control risk and grow assets.It is based in Chicago.
Boston Properties(BXP),Brookfield Office Properties(BPO)

Advantage View:Investing In Inflationary Times

With the recent surge in commodity prices,investors may be wondering what their next move should be.In evaluating a company as a possible investment during such times,you must ask how much their input cost is as the cost of final goods;and whether they can pass this cost on or are vulnerable to rising commodity prices.
RiverFront Investment Group sees energy and mining companies as winners in inflationary scenarios.They also like Monsanto,since farmers will plant more crops during such times,and Monsanto produces the seed they need.McDonald's benefits because,with groceries more expensive,McDonald's is more competitive for your food dollars.Commodity firms such as Exxon Mobil would also do well.
Equities in general are an inflation hedge.For goods traded on the global marketplace,we do have inflation issues there,and that's where I would focus,says Doug Sandler,Chief Equity Strategist at RiverFront.
RiverFront Investment Group is an independent,SEC-registered investment advisor,providing asset management,investment advice and leading edge market insights.They are located in Richmond,Virginia.
Monsanto(MON),McDonald's(MCD),Exxon Mobil(XOM)

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CoStar is the #1 commercial real estate information company,producing and maintaining the largest and most comprehensive database of commercial real estate information.They also analyze and forecast commercial real estate markets.
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CoStar Group(CGSP)

Egypt Edition:Banks Reopening,More Talks On

Starved for cash since January 27,two days after the uprising began,Cairo residents and businesses visited banks that reopened on Sunday.One bank had a line of about 50 people outside the door.Businesses had complained that they needed to withdraw money to repay their creditors.The central bank did impose some limits,however,restricting the amount individuals can withdraw,but not businesses,according to Ahmed Ismail,manager at Abu Dhabi National Bank.
Christians planned to celebrate Mass in Tahrir Square Sunday in remembrance of those who died in the course of the protests,and Muslims said they would form a protective ring around the Christians.The UN estimates up to 300 people were killed in the uprising.
The Muslim Brotherhood said it would meet with Vice-President Omar Suleiman,having earlier declined to do so till Mubarak resigned.The Muslim Brotherhood is an umbrella group of Islamists who favor conservative sharia law for Egypt,but insist they are democratic in pursuit of their goals.
In general,much of the populace is getting restless and more determined to return to work on Sunday,the first day of the work week in predominantly Muslim countries such as Egypt.From fishermen to bankers,they feel the reform process is underway enough now and they need renewed cash flow in order to survive.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Egypt Edition:Cairo Calm,Talks Underway

A much-reduced group of protesters continues to demonstrate in Cairo's Tahrir Square Saturday night,still waving Egyptian flags and listening to speeches as they mill about.About 4-5,000 of these opposition members hold on to their central position.At one point,the army commander dropped by and told them they had been heard;it was time for them to go home.They chanted that they would not go home until Mubarak resigns.
Although Mubarak has not resigned as President,the leadership of his ruling National Democratic Party has-including Mubarak's son,Gamal.The new leader of the party is Hossam Badrawi,an M.D. and medical school professor with a reputation as a liberal and education reformer.He also said it was time the protesters went home.
Some opposition members have been talking with the Vice-President,Omar Suleiman.They are looking for a way to ease Mubarak out of power.Other opponents refuse to negotiate,however,until President Mubarak resigns.
Cairo's courts are slated to reopen tomorrow,and traffic is moving again outside of Tahrir Square.
Tahrir Square Cairo Egypt

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Egypt Edition:Thunderheads Over Tahrir,Americans Unaccounted For

The fate of hundreds of Americans who told the State Department they wanted to leave Egypt was unclear as of Thursday night/Friday dawn Cairo time.About 3,000 Americans intended to escape the mounting xenophobia in the Egyptian capital,yet only 2300 have been flown out so far.Some may have gotten out on their own.
Some Americans have been injured,but they are being helped,either in Cairo or in another country they escaped to,a State Department source said.
Not only journalists are being roughed up by President Hosni Mubarak's plainclothes cronies.Foreigners in general fear for their lives.Black-clothed security forces are being seen driving around in armored personnel carriers.These riot squad types had not been evident to this point.
The Egyptian economy relies on foreigners in the form of tourism and foreign direct investment in the country.
The roughing up of journalists is a worrisome sign of a looming large-scale crackdown,CNN's Hala Gorani believes.Dr.Fouad Ajami of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies also fears an Egyptian Tiananmen Square,referring to the notorious Chinese crackdown on dissenters in 1989.Wednesday night we saw the cruelty of the regime.It became a very different story,a fight for Egypt.Mubarak is hunkered down.It became a civil war between the regime and its people,the Lebanese-born son of Iranian Shiites feels.
Nile TV anchor Shahira Amin resigned in protest at the government's heavier hand.She was told to read press releases from the Interior Ministry and focus on pro-Mubarak forces.
All I was thinking about were the peaceful demonstrators making legitimate demands.They've made us all very proud.I just couldn't betray them by being part of the propaganda machine,Ms.Amin said.She had been chastised in the past for making Egypt look bad.Nile TV broadcsts only in French and English,being aimed at Egypt's educated elite.The Egyptian population is 35% illiterate.
Update:The feared crackdown has not in fact materialized as night has fallen on Egypt Friday.The largest crowd of the week is still chanting,waving flags and hearing speeches in Tahrir Square in Cairo,underneath Mubarak hung in effigy,as well as in Alexandria.Sporadic conflict between pro and anti-Mubarak forces did occur,with the pro forces driving the anti back toward the square.On another occasion,a large white van drove insanely into the crowd.Other than that,the mood is being described as cheerful for the moment,but for how long will the army be neutral?The crowds are also being described as self-sustaining,and whether the military can stand being seen as ineffectual forever is a major question.