Monday, June 27, 2016

Brexit and the Investment After Effects

Financial mavens and governments immediately went to work Monday morning on understanding the aftermath of the UK's choice of the Brexit option.
Obviously this is a shock,said Jurrien Timmer,head of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments in Boston.The UK economy needs to adjust;the stock market and banks need to deal with this new reality.It's not surprising the financial sector is taking the brunt of the hit here.Somebody threw a bunch of sand into the gears.It's a period of reassessing where the growth is,how trade pacts and other agreements are going to be rewritten.*
The S&P 500 has been stuck on 1800-2100 for about a year-and-a-half.Now we have a negative catalyst that I think will lead to revaluation of US and world equities.We may see some form of stagflation,which is really more consistent with a 15x multiple.It's pretty orderly;it's just the market needs to rerate based on a new fundamental.Bascally it depends on how systemic a Brexit is.For the US investor,it's somewhat systemic.I think some degree of rerating is in order.We're a somewhat closed economy.The 15x multiple will lead to basically the lower edge of the range,but no farther.*
The Lehman moment was a liquidity crisis,a funding crisis.With central bank policy over-accommodative here,that's not going to be an issue.I don't see it necessarily as a crisis,unless the euro comes under attack,and it's too early to see that.If the Fed moves to the side,that's definitely an offset.I do think we're going to go into fiscal stimulus in the UK.The UK government could basically fund pretty aggressive stimulus.Even without a shock,some US focus on fiscal stimulus is likely in the election season.*
If we're moving into a mild stagflation environment,we could see less growth with more inflation,so some inflation-protected investing would be in order,Mr.Timmer advised.*
Responding to the Brexit vote,S&P lowered the UK's credit rating from AAA to AA with a negative outlook.*
Investors will be looking into Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities,or TIPS,a type of government bond suitable for buffering portfolios in a stagflation environment.The TIPS bonds' principal is indexed to the Consumer Price Index and rises and falls accordingly;while the TIPS bonds' coupon rate remains steady,yielding more when multiplied by the rising CPI in inflationary conditions. *
iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)

Monday, June 20, 2016

Day One of the Holy and Great Council - Ecumenical Patriarchate Press Of...

Chairman Congressman Royce Commends Historic Orthodox Christian Churches Meeting | Order of Saint Andrew the Apostle - Archons of the Ecumenical Patriarchate

Chairman Royce Commends Historic Orthodox Christian Churches Meeting | Order of Saint Andrew the Apostle - Archons of the Ecumenical Patriarchate

Approaching the Brexit Vote,Hopes For Action in Europe

I'm hoping for a Sputnik moment-the collective realisation that,if we don't do something now,something bad is going to happen,said Mohamed El-Erian,referring to the Soviet Union's launch of the Sputnik satellite in 1957 that triggered the Cold War space race with the United States.Mr.El-Erian,chief economic advisor at Allianz,was commenting following the latest UK poll,which showed Britons leaning against approving the Brexit,the prospective British leaving of the European Union that goes to referendum on Thursday.*
If Brexit were to occur,it would add institutional instability and accelerate the journey to the neck of the T-junction of the global markets and the economy.Imagine this chair with one-and-a-half legs.Monetary union is complete;banking union halfway.We need to complete the regional architecture in Europe,and we need a lot better global policy engine.*
Mr.El-Erian is a native of Egypt and formerly headed the Harvard Endowment.He was most recently co-CEO and co-CIO at PIMCO.*
Allianz SE (Milan:ALV)

Monday, June 13, 2016

BNP Paribas Cash Management University 2016

In early June,the ninth annual BNP Paribas Cash Management University was held in Paris.The delegates were polled about what keeps them awake at night:
1.the current political situation,53%;
2.a new sovereign debt crisis,17%;
3.the ECB's struggle to lift Europe out of deflation,14%;and
4.China's slowing economic growth,10%.*
Alain Papiasse,Group Chief Deputy Chief Operating Officer at BNP,said that the global economic outlook had clouded since the previous CMU last year,with the IMF making several downgrades.Only the US was doing better,and there are fears even about its growth cycle.Europe's modest GDP growth had improved a bit,but not sufficiently to dispel fears it was becoming a second Japan with anaemic growth and near-zero inflation for over 25 years.*
Negative interest rates threaten to become more than a temporary phenomenon,creating a dilemma for companies carrying excessive cash of whether to buy back shares or increase dividends.Digitisation would change the world dramatically over the next five years,and the ways BNP Paribas works with its clients.It also affects corporate treasurers' current areas of concern:
1.reporting and regulating compliance; to invest prudently in a low interest environment;and
3.cyber security's increasing importance.*
There were 260 delegates from 20 countries at the CMU.BNP Paribas is a French multinational that was ranked as the world's third largest bank by assets in 2012.*
BNP Paribas (Paris:BNP)

Monday, June 6, 2016

US - China Dialogue Begins in Beijing

Chinese President Xi Xinping opened the new round of the US-China dialogue with remarks seeking to alleviate tension between the two countries over the South China Sea,80% of which China considers to be its territorial waters.He wants to see confrontation eased in the region.China and the US should talk more often to reduce tension and build more trust.The vast Pacific should be a stage for inclusive cooperation,not a stage for competition,Mr.Xi said.The Pacific shouldn't be a battlefield for different parties.*
Economically,China wants tariffs removed from cold rolled steel;and it wants market economy status,having signed on to the World Trade Organisation 15 years ago.In that status,it would be more difficult for other countries to punish China with tariffs.Mr.Xi also wants an investment treaty.*
Nonetheless,questions are being raised about China's intentions with regard to Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea,which it claims along with Taiwan and the Philippines.Will China build a military airstrip there as it has in the Spratly Islands?