Analysts Pessimistic About Q1 Earnings - where investors should look now

Wall Street analysts are not hopeful about Q1 earnings season,which began,in accordance with tradition,with Alcoa's report after the closing bell.It is supposed to be the worst earnings season since the financial crisis.They foresee a 10% drop in Q1 profit.Despair is unwarranted,however..By Q3,the Street expects a rebound into earnings growth;and,by Q4,it predicts a return to profit growth.*
Scott Wren,Senior Equity Strategist and Managing Director at Wells Fargo Advisors,recommends leaning into those cyclical sectors that have fared best since the February low:consumer discretionary;industrials;and technology.*
Alcoa reported earnings per share of 0.07 per share versus the estimate of 0.02,a significant beat.This success was tempered,though,by their revenue of 4.95 billion versus an estimate of 5.2 billion,a slight miss.The ambiguity may be ascribed to the steep decline in aluminium prices.*
Also reporting this week will be money center banks JP Morgan Chase,Citigroup and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.*
Alcoa (AA),iShares Global Consumer Discretionary ETF (RXI)

Strong Dollar,Appreciation Recasts Investing Strategies

Chipmaker Qualcomm will buy back 15 billion in stock,10 billion of that over the next 12 months.It has 31.6 billion in cash on hand,and will increase its dividend by 14%.It is contemplating a debt issue plus use cash for the buyback.Shareholders have been pushing for this bigger return on investment.Along with this accelerated repurchase,the company has just announced some new chips that are going to be important to its business.*
General Motors will be executing a five billion dollar stock buyback in the near term.*
The soaring US dollar makes it the worst of times for big American companies with an overseas presence,said Larry Glazer of Mayflower Advisors.There's actually a shortage of stocks out there.You have to change your investment strategy.Ultimately,the strong dollar is a good thing,but a volatile currency is not a good thing.It is hurting the emerging markets.*
Small cap stocks,as well as domestically-oriented US companies and European stocks,which have not appreciated nearly as much as US issues in recent years,are being recommended in these conditions.Margins of the big multinationals are likely to be hit by the strong dollar.*
iShares Small Cap Core ETF (IJR),iShares S&P Europe 350 Index Fund (IEV),Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

Investment Ideas February 2015

American Express scored a double beat on its Q4 earnings report.The financial services titan reported earnings of 1.39 a share versus the estimate of 1.38;it had revenue of 9.11 billion versus the 8.53 billion estimate.CEO Ken Chenault attributed the company's success to the gain from the sale of AmEx's stake in Concur Inc;higher card member spending;increased loan balances;tighter control of expenses;and return of profit to shareholders.
There was an eight percent increase in spending by cardholders.*
We like dividend payers,said Doug Sandler,CFA of RiverFront Investment Group in Richmond,Virginia.They'll do fewer stupid things if they have to pay out.We like companies that cater to the middle class-retailers like drug stores,and homebuilders.*
The price of gold has increased this year,according to William Rhind,CEO of World Gold Trust Services.We've seen Russia going into the market buying more gold.I absolutely would agree investors should have 2-10% gold in a well-balanced portfolio.
We're seeing the paradigms of the last couple of years start to be questioned.Gold miners did well during the Great Depression.*
Biotech titan Amgen also reported a double beat.It reported earnings of 2.16 a share versus the estimate of 2.05;and revenue was 5.33 billion versus the estimate of 5.20 billion.The company reaffirmed its full year guidance.Its success was bolstered by drug price increases.*
Rite Aid Corp(RAD),iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF(ITB),Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX),Amgen(AMGN),American Express(AXP)

Brokerage Inks Big Golf Sponsorship Deal

I think it's time to pause,said Charles Schwab,founder of the famous retail brokerage that bears his name.We've had nothing but three to four years of an improving market.My own view is,a core part of your portfolio should be in index funds,and then have a portion in active management.My favour is for small cap stocks.*
The Charles Schwab brokerage has signed a 20-year sponsorship deal with the PGA's Champions Tour,which affords professional golfers ages 50 and above a chance to continue their careers.What could be the motivation for signing such a long agreement?We love the content of golf,Mr.Schwab explained.There are 26 Champions Tour tournaments each year.It's an opportunity to take our clients to a tournament and even for them to play in a pro-am tournament.It's not only advertising,but establishing a relationship with our clients.*
Notable golfers such as Bernhard Langer,Fred Couples and Miguel Angel Jimenez currently participate in the Champions Tour.*
There are a lot of similarities between investing and golf,and we get to communicate that,Mr.Schwab added.*
Charles Schwab Inc(SCHW),iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF(IJR)

BlackRock Viewpoint

Consumers spent a little more money last month,feeling a little better about the jobs they hold,notes Bob Doll,Vice-President and Chief Equity Strategist at BlackRock.We're seeing an improvement in business conditions,improving revenue and will add some jobs soon,but we've got to get past the tightening concerns,the Greek problem.There are more bad debts out there,and that means a sub par recovery.It will be slower than normal:two steps forward,and one step back.
The economy and markets can handle small rate increases.There are political worries,but manufacturing is doing pretty well and inflation is contained.We need to see some job growth.That would be the next step in a normal recovery.The rising price of oil is a sign of global economic recovery.
I've been impressed by the recent mergers and acquisitions,and I think there are a bunch more to come.It will spread lots of different places.I think we'll see continued mixed data,but leaning to the positive.My view is that European growth will be slow.They've got some punching to do to get out of the mess,Mr.Doll believes.
BlackRock,which acquired Barclays' iShares funds,has more than a trillion dollars under management.

BlackRock To Enlarge

BlackRock is purchasing Barclays Global Investors,which is comprised of the iShares investment products.BGI manages about 1.5 trillion dollars-or about half the exchange-traded fund industry.When the deal is consummated,BlackRock will be the largest money manager in the world,with more than 2.7 trillion under management.That is more than the Federal Reserve manages.Consolidation of financial firms is a typical response to crises.
Barclays PLC,the British bank which owns BGI,will hold on to a 20% stake in it.BlackRock is itself part-owned by Bank of America and PNC Financial Services Group.Laurence Fink is CEO of BlackRock.