Some Fed Members Still Think 2015 Rate Increase Is Best

At its September meeting,the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee declined to raise interest rates and left a sense of uncertainty over investors.Just after the meeting,three Fed members advocated raising rates this year.
I argued against the decision,St.Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said.Holding rates steady yet again seems to have created rather than reduced global macroeconomic uncertainty.*
San Francisco FRB President John Williams and Richmond FRB President Jeffrey Lacker also called for a near term rate hike.*
If 2015 is the year the Fed will raise rates,it will have to be in December,since there is no press conference scheduled for the October meeting,suggested Tony Nash,chief economist and managing partner at Complete Intelligence,who focuses on Asia.
In the US,you have a lot of people checking out of the work force between 30-55 years of age,those peak earning years,which limits the consumer.We do see opportunities in the emerging markets short term;in the longer term,debt issues are more troubling.
If we see a very small rate rise and a very slow pace,the emerging markets will suffer,but the magnitude of the suffering will be very shallow.Among the emerging markets,India has a very weak portfolio of ministers.Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to have to change it up,if he wants to improve the economy.*
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Outplacement Outlook:The Road Back To Full Employment

Companies are holding onto their people now,according to John Challenger of Challenger,Gray&Christmas,the oldest outplacement firm.There are major cuts taking place,however,in the military,post office and state and local government that are unlike anything we've seen in the past decade.Helping our veterans find jobs will be a crucial element of whether the economy stays strong in 2012.
December job cuts fell 1.6% from November as the economy added 200,000 jobs.It's not gangbusters growth.Consumer demand is crucial to job creation.We're dependent on a strong consumer for 70% of the economy.That's the key as we go forward.The consumer is slowly growing at this point,Mr.Challenger noted.
Christina Romer,a former White House advisor and currently a Professor of Economics at the University of California Berkeley,adds that,even at the rate of 200,000 more jobs a month,it still would take us eight years to get back to where we were before the financial crisis.

NFIB:Small Business Optimism Below Average

The National Federation of Independent Business' Optimism Index came in at 90.2 for October,up 1.3 from September.This was below the year to date average of 91.1,and only a little better than the average since January 2009 of 89.1.The gain was mainly the result of less negative views about prospects for real sales and business conditions,NFIB said.
Basically we've gone nowhere since the recession ended,according to Bill Dunkelberg,NFIB Chief Economist.We're thinking the economy will be worse three years from now than better.Sales expectations are still low.I expect it to continue that way for some time.
We've gone through a big period of inventory and staff reduction.We're kind of set for the relatively weak level of consumer spending that we have to deal with.It is a demand problem.Until that changes,we're not gonna be doing any hiring.Consumer sentiment is the worst since 1980.
The NFIB Optimism Index usually leads the market a little bit,Mr.Dunkelberg observed.
Small business generated 65% of net new jobs over the past 17 years,the Small Business Administration claims.