Investing Today:Top Positions February 2015

I think stocks are fairly valued,relatively cheap compared to bonds,said famed money manager Bill Miller,Chairman and Chief Investment Officer at Legg Mason Global Asset Management;but I also think there are too many cross-currents here:Greece,Ukraine.There's a fair degree of interest in the Fed of moving off the zero mark.I think they want to do it because of the very low rates.I would think the 10-year Treasury will settle somewhere at 4-5%,its normal rate.
Amazon had a bad year last year,and after Q4 we went into it heavily,to our largest position.They have a market cap of 170 billion;they haven't sold stock;and they make a lot of cash,which to me is more important than profits.The Apple Pay and Apple Watch should do very well this year.If Apple struggles to reach her highs,the whole market struggles.Intrexon is a synthetic biology company.It's going to rewrite DNA,with applications for health care,energy and the environment making it a consumer company.
The S&P Homebuilders etf is a top ten position,along with Intrexon,Mr.Miller revealed.*
Halliburton Oil is cutting 8% of its workforce-not surprising since prices are still below the level needed to sustain the industry,according to energy analyst Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James Financial.Fifty or fifty-five dollar oil doesn't cut it medium-term.If oil stays in the fifties,global supply will decline in 2016,being self-correcting.Oil supply is stabilising by the end of this year,as supply will be flat or down slightly.*
Amazon(AMZN),Apple Computer(APPL),Intrexon(XON),SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF(XHB),Halliburton Oil Company(HAL)

Trouble at SeaWorld and Independent Business;Walmart OK

SeaWorld's ebitda,or operating cash flow,was down 14-16%,and attendance came in below estimates.This is an astounding decline,said CNBC analyst Jim Cramer.This is just an abberation.I've never seen a complete collapse of ebitda.
This thing is just in trouble.The CNN documentary on SeaWorld must have played a role.*
The CNN documentary "Blackfish" covers the killing of a trainer by an orca at the Orlando,Florida SeaWorld in 2010.California is considering legislation to ban orca shows at amusement parks following the shocking incident.The company said it believes attendance in the quarter was impacted by demand pressure related to media attention surrounding proposed legislation in the state of California.*
If you're self-employed,your deductibles are out of control,Cramer observed.The cost of health care in this country is soaring with the Affordable Care Act.It's going to cost too much to have a baby-something to think about.This is what the companies involved in health and human services for independent business organisations are telling me.I don't mean to be political.Deductibles are flying high.*
Walmart has cut its full year forecast,but Raymond James analyst Budd Bugatch isn't too concerned.I feel pretty good about the report,Mr.Bugatcher said.Sales were better than expected.I think the costs were about health care,and a little bit about the economy as well.The new US CEO will take over an operation that is a pretty good operation.Returning growth to the core will be a key objective of his.
In the electronics area,Walmart has just gone through a project reboot.Our outperform rating is that investors with a large portfolio should overweight the stock and pay attention to it.*
Greg Foran is the new Walmart US CEO,having previously headed the company's Asia division.In a conference call,he told analysts that being in stock,clean stores and the right price were among his priorities.
Wal-Mart(WMT)

Raymond James:Small Brokerage,Big Growth

Raymond James Financial reported profit up 90%,and revenue up 18%.CEO Paul Reilly says it's really a result of strong long term,conservative investment.There were solid returns from investment banking,banking and the asset management group.
We're seeing the returns really get back into the equity markets,although not like they have historically.Investors are being cautious,but are coming back into the markets.
Raymond James is adding advisors to its private client group.We think we can continue to achieve 15% compounded growth.We're not about being the biggest.It's kind of a quality goal.
We're really focusing on our current businesses.We will continue to look at niche acquisitions,Mr.Reilly indicated.
Raymond James has 5300 advisors.The company was founded in 1962.It serves individual,institutional and corporate clients from offices throughout North America.
Raymond James Financial(RJF)

A Cascade Of Caution

As the hills of Malibu burn,investors are facing their own persistent hazards-many of them so obscure that even the elite are puzzled.John Mack,CEO of Morgan Stanley(MS),says it will take 6-9 months to figure out what the losses are.We are not out of the woods yet.The credit market has improved,but mortgage securities will take a long time to work through.What is the collateral behind these packaged mortgages? That is the challenge.Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson calls for an aggressive response to the housing crisis.It is a significant threat to the U.S. economy,and is still unfolding.The longer housing prices are stagnant or fall,ther greater the penalty on our economy.Scott Sperling of Thomas H. Lee Partners,a private equity firm,says it is a very dangerous time for his business.It is a time for great caution.We haven't seen the last of the troubles.We have improved a little,notes Paul McCulley of Pimco,but the mortgage area is very restricted.There is a lot of downside on the economy.The equity market is a call option.Asset-backed commercial paper remains a problem,and structured investment vehicles still need to be unwound.To Carter Worth of Oppenheimer,it seems we will go back down to where we were before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on 9-18.The market is wobbly and increasingly thin,so why rush to buy? Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James notes a big uptick in credit card debt.That suggests the peak of a credit cycle,and a slowdown to follow.To prepare,some investors are looking to the Vanguard Total Bond Fund(BND) for their protection.Others are buying shares of General Electric(GE),which is relatively cheap at this time,pays a dividend and has an international presence.