A Stark Inflation Picture

The U.S. Producer Price Index was up 9.8 year over year for July.That is the highest increase since 1981.The core number was up 3.5 year over year-the highest rise since 1991.The July PPI was up 1.2,and the July core number was up 0.7.The German PPI also saw the biggest increase since 1981.Not only are consumer prices high;the businesses consumers buy from are confronting steep inflation as well.Havens from inflation include gold stocks such as Kinross Gold(KGC),a Canadian mining firm with international operations,and the iShares Lehman Brothers TIPS fund(TIP),which contains U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities.

Inflation Data Looms

Two key readings on inflation will be released Thursday and Friday.Should there be a pronounced uptick in the core Producer Price Index(PPI) and Consumer Price Index(CPI),stocks may be expected to decline.Any such indication that the Federal Reserve will be more likely to raise interest rates in order to rein inflation in,will bring the bears out in force,resulting in a wave of selling.Stocks are already under pressure from a rise in government bond yields.One approach to this danger is to keep new money in money market funds through at least the weekend.