Conditions At Goldman Sachs-plus its current strategy

Considered by many to be the profit and influence king among investment banks in modern times,Goldman Sachs was nonetheless subject to the same economic forces as everyone else in Q4 2011.The firm beat earnings estimates,but missed on revenue,or sales.Goldman's clientele is being cautious about investing and mergers and acquisitions in this difficult climate.
Trading and investment banking is down.It's not a good time to be an investment banker or trader,according to William D. Cohan,author of the well-regarded book "Money and Power:How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World."With the new rules,it's gonna be very tough to do business on Wall Street.
You're gonna get 5-8 years in the limelight at Goldman Sachs;then you're gonna be moved out for younger people.That's a good thing.
I think Goldman Sachs wants to be below the radar screen,not the whackamole.They want to get beyond being the poster child for bad behavior on Wall Street,Mr.Cohan observed.
With regard to the company's current perspective on equities,Dave Costin,Chief Equity Strategist at Goldman,says U.S. companies with the most exposure to the U.S. ought to outperform.It's one of our fundamental strategies for 2012.Consumer staples are what we prefer.Labor slack means little wage growth,hence poor discretionary spending.
Long term,two-thirds of corporate cash is reinvested in growth.In this environment,we're looking at 11% growth of dividends,Mr.Costin noted.
In other words,companies are plowing a lot of cash into dividends today to attract the skittish investors of these volatile times.It's why so many investment advisors are recommending the good dividend payers such as Procter&Gamble and PepsiCo to their clients.
Goldman Sachs(GS),Procter&Gamble(PG),PepsiCo(PEP)

Procter&Gamble Relies On Cutting Edge

Procter&Gamble has reported earnings of 1.02 a share,versus an estimate of 1.00;and revenue of 20.1 billion dollars,versus an estimate of 20.24.Free cash flow was 1.9 billion dollars.The company repurchased 3 billion dollars of its shares to support the stock.
Organic sales were up 4%,while volume rose 8%.Fiscal year 2011 organic sales are projected to rise 4-11%.
Jan Moeller,Chief Financial Officer of the company,says the U.S. economy is choppy,but as long as they continue to innovate,they'll be able to price appropriately.They build their business plans to achieve organically.Acquisitions are on top of that.
A Sunday newspaper circular highlighted a number of new Procter&Gamble products.CNBC's Jim Cramer recently praised the firm and its CEO,Bob MacDonald.
Procter&Gamble(PG)

Procter&Gamble Explains Misses

Procter and Gamble's earnings report missed estimates on both the top and bottom lines.Earnings per share were 0.71 cents,versus an estimate of 0.73,while revenue was at 18.93 billion dollars,versus an estimate 0f 19.102 billion.Chief Financial Officer Joe Moeller said this was because the company chooses to invest more behind significant innovation and strategic initiatives.Procter&Gamble is building market share in every one of its regions.In the developed world,things are relatively slow.There is good growth in the developing world,but it is 25% below standard.
Procter&Gamble is seeing the re-acceleration of branded sales.The Pro-Glide razor is doing well.Pampers Dry-Max is doing extremely well.There's a very exciting year ahead of Procter&Gamble.There will be a Crest 3D White,a new laundry brand in India and a reformulation of Tide for the first time in 10 years.The company has a very sufficient pipeline for innovation,Mr.Moeller believes.
Procter&Gamble is headquartered in Cincinatti,Ohio.
Procter&Gamble(PG)

Morningstar's Wide Moats

Paul Larson,equity strategist at Morningstar,says the economy and its indicators are less bad.There's a big difference between less bad and good.We've been having simply a multiple expansion rally-just a rebound.It was not reflecting a meaningful recovery.There is not a whole lot of substance to the green shoots theory.
Morningstar likes companies with wide moats.Their profits are protected from competitors over the long term.Procter and Gamble is one of these.A third of its sales are in the emerging markets.Novartis is another wide moat firm.It is very diverse,being big in vaccines,generic drugs and consumer products.Lowe's is a third wide moat company.It's had negative same-store sales recently,but is very,very cheap right now,Mr.Larson notes.

Procter and Gamble Gets New Chief

Tomorrow Robert McDonald will assume the post of CEO at Procter and Gamble.He has worked at PG for 29 years,and most recently was Chief Operating Officer-a post he is eliminating upon his accession to the top job at the company.He will also be assuming the role of President when Susan Arnold leaves in September.Mr.McDonald said he wants to streamline the firm's management,creating a simpler,flatter and more agile organization.This is a priority because it reduces cost,improves productivity and enhances employee satisfaction,the new CEO pointed out.
Mr.McDonald will be leading 138,000 workers in more than 80 countries.The company's sales exceed 80 billion dollars a year.Mr.McDonald,56 years old,succeeds A.J. Lafley,who served for nine years.Procter and Gamble operates in three divisions:Beauty,Household Care and Health and Well-being.The company's brands include Tide,Sure and Duracell.

Berkshire Hathaway Shuffles Stakes

Warren Buffett's holding company,Berkshire Hathaway,has been rearranging its portfolio.It unloaded about 9.5 million shares of staples behemoth Procter and Gamble,or about 9% of its holding.It also jettisoned more than half of its Johnson and Johnson shares,selling approximately 33.1 million shares.Berkshire's Anheuser Busch holding was liquidated after Belgian firm InBev purchased the American brewer in November 2008.Constellation Energy Group and NRG Energy were positions that Berkshire augmented,while Nalco Holding Company,a water treatment,equipment and services firm,was the only totally new purchase,at 8.7 million shares.The rearrangement took place over Q4 2008.

Procter and Gamble Grows

Rising commodity and energy costs are affecting Procter and Gamble's business,CEO A.G. Lafley admitted.There is no doubt that the consumer is under pressure,but PG consumer categories are still growing-albeit modestly.Everyday household and personal care products are still being bought on a weekly basis.PG employment and hiring in the U.S. should be up this year.Emerging markets are their engine of growth-and will be into the future,Mr.Lafley observed.

Wary Sentiment Wells Up

For the past several days,a wary mood has been expressed by Wall Street analysts.David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley(MS) notes a powerful flight to the safety of government bonds.Banks are still tightening credit,which will slow the economy over the next several quarters.Peak foreclosure on homes will not occur until mid-2008.Jack Ablin of Harris Private Bank thinks the world has changed now.There is the high price of oil coupled with the weak dollar.The trend has changed.As the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates,the price of commodities spikes.Fifteen of twenty commodities have gained over the past six months.Billionaire Wilbur Ross of W L Ross and Company says we are in the fourth or fifth inning of the crisis.It will be at least a few more years until foreclosures and write-downs end.More credit card and loan delinquencies are being recorded,which suggests that consumers are tapped out.Oppenheimer's Michael Metz feels we are in for a period of very slow growth.This will last for about two years,as we've been in a leveraged economy.The big growth wasn't real.Now we will see a period of 1-1.5% growth.To Joe Battipaglia of Stifel Nicolaus,we are in a contraction from housing,and consumption will be weak for some time.It will take years to work this out.Housing prices are just beginning to fall.The biggest consumer asset is losing its value.Credit is harder to get,so the market is properly going down.We've only dropped 5% in home prices so far.The clock is ticking on 600 billion of mortgages,so he is staying in a lot of cash and some multinational stocks.Cash has been pouring into money market funds,sending them to record levels.Oppenheimer offers its customers the Advantage series of funds.Other stable funds are TIAA-Cref Instit MMF/Retail and Vanguard Tax-Exempt MMF.Procter and Gamble(PG) and Johnson and Johnson(JNJ) are favored multinational stocks.

Ford Confident Of Profits

Alan Mulally,CEO of Ford Motor Company(F),still expects the automaker to reach profitability in 2009.Speaking yesterday at a plant opening in Nanjing,China,Mulally said the housing slump will likely slow the economy.Ford is keeping a close eye on the situation.No doubt it is also carefully watching General Motors Corporation (GM) negotiate with the United Auto Workers union,with which it also needs to deal.For the first time since 1976,GM workers went on nationwide strike in the midst of talks yesterday.UAW president Ron Gettelfinger bitterly criticized GM,accusing it of conducting a one way negotiation,to the disadvantage of the workers.From Thursday to Friday,GM made only one concession-regarding a cap on profit-sharing.The UAW had constantly worked with GM over recent years,so it was disappointing to see them act as if they really didn't care about the strike deadline.While the strike continues,GM stands to lose 100 million dollars a day.It has 32 billion in cash on hand.As 12,200 vehicles a day are not produced,Canadian plants will have to shut down by Thursday or Friday,and Latin American plants by Saturday.In the U.S.,73,000 workers are idle,drawing 200 dollars a week from the UAW.The main problem in the talks seems to be the UAW's insistence on job security,which is difficult for GM to commit to for years in advance.David Reilly of Rydex Investments thinks the strike would have to go on for a long time before the stock market to be affected.Yet with the credit crunch and slowing economic growth,defensive caution is warranted by investors.Consumer staples and utilities look safe to him.Investors might consider Procter and Gamble (PG) and Duke Energy (DUK) in those sectors.Among automakers,Ford shares rose yesterday,while GM shares fell.