Recent economic reports serve to refute the notion that the US is in a recession,according to Dean Maki,PhD,Chief US Economist at investment bank Barclays Capital.We believe Q3 will be stronger than Q2.Profits were by and large flat in Q2.That's really disappointed people.
We think people have to trim their expectations.They have to hire,and that cuts into profit growth.That's where we are right now.It could be a rocky road,in our view,within Europe.Ultimately,we do think they will put a handle on things.
Our view is that the Federal Reserve will not launch QE3 in September.With a significant rise in gas prices, spending will be crimped in coming months.Housing is one of the pieces we find we're most sure of in terms of a recovery.We think it will continue.
Dr.Maki has a PhD in economics from Stanford University.The Minnesota native worked as a Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve with former Chairman Alan Greenspan.
QE3 would be a further effort by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the US economy.
Barclays(BCS)
Showing posts with label Alan Greenspan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alan Greenspan. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Monday, June 6, 2011
What Scares Alan Greenspan
Alan Greenspan,former longtime chairman of the Federal Reserve,is very concerned about the fate of the U.S. economy.We are running out of time,he says.We've never had anything like this deficit issue.These are the most fundamental questions that a democratic society must choose.
We no longer have what we had in the Kennedy space program days:a real buffer of national resources.Because we have fallen behind in education,the U.S. economy will not be growing at the rate seen in the past to support social programs such as Medicare.The last three years,the proportion of GDP whose lifespan is 20 years or less has increased.
In every cycle we have come out of,construction has always been a major factor in the recovery.This is the first time that construction has not come out of this.Commercial construction of structures is very deeply discounted now as business cannot see what is gonna happen 20 years or more from now.
The more things that you introduce into the economy,a whole structure of activism that occurred in the aftermath of the financial crisis,the more uncertainty is created.I don't think the whole conception system of how capitalism works is contained in the reform.s are gonna happen in ways that are gonna be very surprising.
The rulings that are gonna solve the consumer market problems are gonna eliminate the market,shutting down consumer finance.You could have prevented the crisis if you'd had adequate capital.Your senior debt never fails if you do.The ideal regulation is capital adequacy,Mr.Greenspan believes.
Alan Greenspan,85,was chairman of the Federal reserve from 1987-2006.He has continued to play an active role in public life as an economic elder statesman.
We no longer have what we had in the Kennedy space program days:a real buffer of national resources.Because we have fallen behind in education,the U.S. economy will not be growing at the rate seen in the past to support social programs such as Medicare.The last three years,the proportion of GDP whose lifespan is 20 years or less has increased.
In every cycle we have come out of,construction has always been a major factor in the recovery.This is the first time that construction has not come out of this.Commercial construction of structures is very deeply discounted now as business cannot see what is gonna happen 20 years or more from now.
The more things that you introduce into the economy,a whole structure of activism that occurred in the aftermath of the financial crisis,the more uncertainty is created.I don't think the whole conception system of how capitalism works is contained in the reform.s are gonna happen in ways that are gonna be very surprising.
The rulings that are gonna solve the consumer market problems are gonna eliminate the market,shutting down consumer finance.You could have prevented the crisis if you'd had adequate capital.Your senior debt never fails if you do.The ideal regulation is capital adequacy,Mr.Greenspan believes.
Alan Greenspan,85,was chairman of the Federal reserve from 1987-2006.He has continued to play an active role in public life as an economic elder statesman.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Greenspan Grapples With Crisis
Alan Greenspan,former Federal Reserve Chairman,clearly has continued to wrestle with financial issues,if his recent comments are any guide.The stock market is not merely an indicator,he points out;it's a cause of economic activity.The data show that most people do not distinguish between paycheck income and their 401k appreciation.And upper income persons account for 45% of personal income expenditure.
Because of this effect,an underperforming stock market tends to crimp the consumer spending so vital to economic health,it has been observed.
The problem is,industrial production rose fairly steadily until the last week in May,and then it stopped dead.There is a normal pause in economic recoveries,but we are coming out of the greatest global economic crisis the world has ever seen.This recovery has continued to be dominated by large banks and big business.The small banks are loaded up with commercial real estate loans-the worst possible loans-so they aren't lending.
The problem in job growth is the extraordinary growth in productivity.It's still showing growth at a tremendous pace.This is much too much.There is surely a short term fear factor.The average hourly work week has been going up.
As long as that is the case,companies won't be hiring many new workers.It means they're just piling more work on the existing staff.
A big regulatory response to the financial crisis is appropriate,but you have to depend on the owners and managers to protect their equity.There is nothing that beats counterparty surveillance.A small little group of government auditors can't do much of any significance,in Mr.Greenspan's opinion.
Alan Greenspan continues to serve the nation long after he left office by applying his intellect to the current situation,clarifying it,or at least stimulating discussion with his comments.
Because of this effect,an underperforming stock market tends to crimp the consumer spending so vital to economic health,it has been observed.
The problem is,industrial production rose fairly steadily until the last week in May,and then it stopped dead.There is a normal pause in economic recoveries,but we are coming out of the greatest global economic crisis the world has ever seen.This recovery has continued to be dominated by large banks and big business.The small banks are loaded up with commercial real estate loans-the worst possible loans-so they aren't lending.
The problem in job growth is the extraordinary growth in productivity.It's still showing growth at a tremendous pace.This is much too much.There is surely a short term fear factor.The average hourly work week has been going up.
As long as that is the case,companies won't be hiring many new workers.It means they're just piling more work on the existing staff.
A big regulatory response to the financial crisis is appropriate,but you have to depend on the owners and managers to protect their equity.There is nothing that beats counterparty surveillance.A small little group of government auditors can't do much of any significance,in Mr.Greenspan's opinion.
Alan Greenspan continues to serve the nation long after he left office by applying his intellect to the current situation,clarifying it,or at least stimulating discussion with his comments.
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