Monday, September 15, 2014

Westpac Exec:Why a Market Correction is in the Making

We're setting up assuming Sydney will become a renminbi trading hub,said Rob Whitfield,Group Executive of Westpac Institutional Bank.The November G20 meeting is absolutely an incentive to a free trade agreement with China.A China slowdown would slow down the economy.It would certainly affect our performance.*
I do see that we will really see a significant,meaningful asset price correction.Credit spreads are narrow,forcing a move by many into higher risk assets.Junk bond yields are at all time lows.Asset bubbles are emerging as share markets have posted successive record highs in recent times despite tapering and mixed economic results.It is my view that the current environment is ripe for a market correction that both looks and feels like what we experienced in 1994.At that time,US Treasury bond prices plummeted,causing the Fed to raise rates,which resulted in higher borrowing costs and a market correction.
Such an event need not freeze the credit markets this time the way the global financial crisis did,however.The financial system has been reformed since then.
The failures that perpetuated the recent crisis today no longer exist,Mr.Whitfield pointed out,and our ability to withstand shocks is much stronger.*
There's massive risk on the Scottish independence vote.A lot of the uncertainty has been priced in.Certainly there are lots of signs we've started to see a sea change with the US dollar,a big divergence between the US and the rest of the world.A lot of ugly ducklings are out there.It filters through the Federal open market committee on Wednesday-more event risk.There could be a lot of dollar-buying across the board,and Treasury-selling.If Fed chair Janet Yellen surprises it,the market will feel very disappointed.*

No comments: