Sunday, July 4, 2010

Double Dips Are Rare

The economic data do not reinforce the idea of a double dip recession,says Tony Crescenzi,Senior Strategist and Portfolio Manager at PIMCO.Yet sustainability is in question.Job creation doesn't match labor force growth today.Double dip recessions are rare,however;there have only been three in the past 150 years.
It really probably emanates from the sovereign debt crisis:if Europe stays stable,perhaps the escape velocity for growth will be reached.There is income growth at this time.The money market has improved and then moved sideways since May.Hopefully there will be clarity and transparency in Europe on the bank stress tests.In the meantime,consider Treasury securities as insurance for portfolios,Mr.Crescenzi suggests.
Apart from another recession,a slow growth environment is quite harmful in itself,hindering employment prospects and straining all levels of government.In that scenario,tax revenues may not recover fast enough to avert fiscal train wrecks.

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