Jeffrey Gundlach Fed Day - CNBC Closing Bell - 12 June 2024

with Scott Wapner,Steve Liesman and Jeffrey Gundlach,founder,CEO and Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital LP The interview took place in DoubleLine's Los Angeles office.The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its June meeting.Mr.Gundlach is predicting a recession and is less sure the Federal Reserve will make even one interest rate cut this year.He currently likes investing in gold and India.DoubleLine has a range of mutual funds,closed end funds,exchange traded funds and UCITS.UCITS is a European Union regulatory framework for trading mutual funds. Based in Tampa,Florida,DoubleLine is majority employee owned and employs 248.Oaktree Capital Mangement owns a 20% stake in the firm.

The removal of Fed puts has caused these bear market challenges, says Ritholtz's Josh Brown

Investing today:Market sell-off an opportunity for investors, says Wells Fargo's Scott Wren

Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein On China, Volatility In The Stock Market And The Future ...

Indirect Investing in Cryptocurrencies - a path for cautious investors

There are a number of companies who have included cryptocurrencies,aka digital currencies,such as Bitcoin and Ether in their operations in one way or another.Buying stocks of these companies,therefore,is a way for more conservative investors to participate in the cryptocurrency sector as a part of their portfolios.After all,cryptocurrencies are only one aspect of these businesses,and by no means the only thing they have going for them.*
First of all,companies such as Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia are manufacturing graphics cards,or GPUs,that speculators need for discovering currency mining algorithms.These are especially powerful cards,not the general GPUs.*
Online video gaming firm Zynga was an early adopter of Bitcoin transactions.The company had a good Q1 2017 and its stock price had appreciated 44% year to date as of late June.The fact that Zynga accepts Bitcoin makes it an attractive place to play games for the growing crowd of digital currency owners.*
Paypal has formed partnerships with three Bitcoin-based service providers.More and more people want to transact in Bitcoin,so Paypal has positioned itself to help them do just that.*
ARK Web X.O ETF invests primarily in innovative technology firms.The Bitcoin Investment Trust is its largest holding,at 8.8% of its portfolio as of March 2017.Other holdings in the etf include such firms as AthenaHealth,Amazon,Tesla,Netflix,Alphabet (Google) and Facebook.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD),ARK Web X.O ETF (NYSEArca:ARKW),Nvidia Inc (NVID),Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL),Zynga Inc (ZNGA)

Strong Dollar,Appreciation Recasts Investing Strategies

Chipmaker Qualcomm will buy back 15 billion in stock,10 billion of that over the next 12 months.It has 31.6 billion in cash on hand,and will increase its dividend by 14%.It is contemplating a debt issue plus use cash for the buyback.Shareholders have been pushing for this bigger return on investment.Along with this accelerated repurchase,the company has just announced some new chips that are going to be important to its business.*
General Motors will be executing a five billion dollar stock buyback in the near term.*
The soaring US dollar makes it the worst of times for big American companies with an overseas presence,said Larry Glazer of Mayflower Advisors.There's actually a shortage of stocks out there.You have to change your investment strategy.Ultimately,the strong dollar is a good thing,but a volatile currency is not a good thing.It is hurting the emerging markets.*
Small cap stocks,as well as domestically-oriented US companies and European stocks,which have not appreciated nearly as much as US issues in recent years,are being recommended in these conditions.Margins of the big multinationals are likely to be hit by the strong dollar.*
iShares Small Cap Core ETF (IJR),iShares S&P Europe 350 Index Fund (IEV),Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

Market Ideas Late February 2015

We fully expect over the next 10-15 days we could see the S&P 500 at 2000 or below,said Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Tactical Management,because:
1.Greece hasn't been solved.
2.Vladimir Putin.
3.The Fed is the 800-pound gorilla.Once the Fed exits,investors will go with it.*
Ultimately,crude probably does go lower,adds Dennis Gartman,editor of The Gartman Letter.We've broken some down-trend lines.Actually,I own a couple of oil companies to hedge my own position.
The fact is,stocks are going higher.Anybody short of stocks has been in a very difficult position,and will continue to be.The beach ball is still going higher.There's no reason to believe otherwise.A lot of people have been bearish-very smart guys-and they've been wrong.*
Steve Milunovich,IT hardware analyst and managing director at UBS,has reiterated his buy rating on Apple,with a 150.00 price target.Apple is reportedly working on an all-electric minivan type car.We do think the Apple ecosystem is increasing-very important.The change is,Apple is becoming pervasive in consumer lives.It still primarily monetises through its devices,but services is the glue to the story.
CEO Tim Cook has done a tremendous job of putting it all together.If they really do expand,the less they depend on the iPhone,and that's helpful.If Apple goes up to 160-170 dollars per share,it will have a market cap of a trillion dollars.*
Apple Computer(AAPL),iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV),Chevron(CVX),Valero Energy(VLO)

Brokerage Inks Big Golf Sponsorship Deal

I think it's time to pause,said Charles Schwab,founder of the famous retail brokerage that bears his name.We've had nothing but three to four years of an improving market.My own view is,a core part of your portfolio should be in index funds,and then have a portion in active management.My favour is for small cap stocks.*
The Charles Schwab brokerage has signed a 20-year sponsorship deal with the PGA's Champions Tour,which affords professional golfers ages 50 and above a chance to continue their careers.What could be the motivation for signing such a long agreement?We love the content of golf,Mr.Schwab explained.There are 26 Champions Tour tournaments each year.It's an opportunity to take our clients to a tournament and even for them to play in a pro-am tournament.It's not only advertising,but establishing a relationship with our clients.*
Notable golfers such as Bernhard Langer,Fred Couples and Miguel Angel Jimenez currently participate in the Champions Tour.*
There are a lot of similarities between investing and golf,and we get to communicate that,Mr.Schwab added.*
Charles Schwab Inc(SCHW),iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF(IJR)

Santa Claus Rally Continues;Where Oil Is Headed

I want to wish all of you a Happy and Merry Christmas.Thank you for coming to the blog.It's a Christmas party day.
Wall Street was in a party mood,with tech stocks leading the way as investors gobbled up shares of Intel,Qualcomm,Apple and Facebook.The S&P 500 reached its 50th record high of 2014 today,closing at 2078.54,up 0.38%.The Dow Jones Industrial Average also broke its record,closing at 17959.44,up 0.87%;and the NASDAQ closed up for the day at 4781.42,up 0.34%.*
I think oil probably does stay down here-maybe just a tad lower,says Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter.I think the time for being overly bearish on crude oil has probably passed.I doubt that we're going to see a great good deal lower from here.Clearly we see demand has decreased a good bit,and supply has increased a good deal.Libya and Kurdish have come back on the market.This was very complicated.There were a lot of things happening.
The Keystone Pipeline would have an amazing response.It can only be beneficial to us and to our Canadian friends to the north.*
I'm really skeptical about China,said author and investment banker Chis Whalen.China is pulling in credit.I think we're pretty stable into next year.I think oil will stabilise in the mid-60s.There are two stories here:large cap oil got sold off;I think you'll see the majors recover.The small ones that have been in the loan markets are going to have to deal with this.
I think in a lot of ways,consumers have still been suffering,because the cost of living still goes up.While low oil prices are good for the US,they're not good for the rest of the world.What's the catalyst for growth in the emerging markets if commodity prices are flat?Mr.Whalen inquired.*
Apple Computer(AAPL),Intel(INTC),Qualcomm(QCOM),Facebook(FB)

Investing Ideas November 2014

Yum Brands,parent of Kentucky Fried Chicken and Pizza Hut,has been upgraded from hold to buy at Janney Capital Markets,mainly on undervaluation.The firm got a new price target of 88.00 a share.*
Don't expect Apple Computer to go higher,according to Pacific Crest Securities.There is a potential lack of growth beyond the iPhone 6,and the iWatch and other products won't be able to make up for it.*
Lumber Liquidators was raised from equal weight to overweight at Morgan Stanley,with an 85.00 a share price target.The company has about 10% square footage growth and powerful store remodel/relocate benefits in its favour.Rising home prices and lower fuel costs should also help Lumber Liquidators.*
The low gas prices should also help big box retailers such as Target and Best Buy,says Stifel Nicolaus.Another plus is the strength of their online businesses alongside their brick and mortar stores.Wal-Mart has already seen share price appreciation from these factors.*
Yum Brands(YUM),Best Buy(BBY),Wal-Mart(WMT),Target(TGT),Apple Computer(AAPL)

Analyst Eyeballs Inflation Risk

Significant inflation could be just around the corner,causing the Federal Reserve to exit its bond buying support of the stock market in short order,according to Peter Boockvar,chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group.I think it's a big deal,Mr.Boockvar told CNBC.We've had multiple data points pointing to a bottoming in inflation.Gasoline prices are at their highest level since July.
If there's one thing that could handcuff Fed policy,it's a rise in inflation.According to the Fed's measure,we're far away from it.I think it's important in gauging the timing of the exit strategy.A faster uptick in inflation could hasten that exit strategy faster than the Fed thinks.You get back to that 2% level faster than the Fed thinks and you're going to see rate hikes faster than the Fed expected,Mr.Boockvar pointed out.
The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities,a widely recognised benchmark for commmodities trading,is at its highest point since October 2012.A closely watched measure of inflation,the Consumer Price Index,will be released later today.
On Monday,the markets shrugged off Ukraine worries on strong retail sales and Citigroup earnings.
Citigroup(C)

Asian Shares Higher;Tony Abbott;Malaysian Grand Prix

Asian markets ended the first quarter confidently Monday,with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index up 0.50%.Markets were encouraged by China Construction Bank's better than expected performance on wider lending margins,and consumer shares were strongest.The Nikkei average was up even though Japan's sales tax goes up for the first time in 17 years to 8.0% on Tuesday,and US stock futures followed the positive trend.*
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott visited RAAF Pearce in Perth Monday morning to thank the multinational troops searching for the lost flight MH-370 and address the media.It's been tremendous to see all of the cooperation here,Mr.Abbott said.It's really heartening,and it demostrates the nations of this area can come together for the betterment of humanity.
This is an extraordinarily difficult exercise and we are working on extremely limited information.The best minds and all of the technological mastery that we have is being brought to bear here.If this mystery is solvable,we will solve it.I'm certainly not putting a time limit on it.We owe it to everyone to do whatever we reasonably can.The intensity of our search and the magnitude of our operations in increasing,not decreasing.
We're working on the best available intelligence and the best available leads.We're as good as anyone in the world at it.I think morale is high.They're tired,sure;but this is what they're trained for;this is what they live for.I am getting several updates a day on this.My office is at least in hourly contact with those who are responsible for the search.
This is a major international incident and Australia has the lead responsibility for what happens in our search zone.We here will bear the cost of the coordination center under Air Chief Marshall Angus Houston.It's an act of international citizenship on Australia's part.We are happy to be as helpful as we can,Prime Minister Tony Abbott assured the media and military personnel at RAAF Pearce Base.
The search will be coordinated from the Western Australia Crisis Centre in Perth by retired Air Chief Marshall Allan Grant "Angus" Houston,former Chief of Defence.*
In motor sport,Petronas AMG Mercedes took the top two places at the Formula One Malaysian Grand Prix near Kuala Lumpur on Sunday as drivers Lewis Hamilton of Great Britain and German Nico Rosberg finished ahead of Infiniti Red Bull's Sebastian Vettel,the defending World Champion.This follows Rosberg's win at the season opener in Melbourne two weeks ago.Meanwhile,Australian Will Power won the first race of the season in the Indycar Series,the St.Petersburg Grand Prix in Florida,while American Ryan Hunter-Reay took second and Power's teammate Helio Castroneves of Brazil came in third.

From Buybacks To Growth;JC Penney Improves

We're forecasting about a 10% upside for the year-closer to an average return than the past few years,said Savita Subramanian,head of US equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.Once we get a better sense of the economy as improving,there's no better place to be than the stock market.The market is actually rewarding the companies that spend on growth,whether through acquisition or capex.Investors want growth,not necessarily buybacks to return cash.
We really want to look at company spoecifics.It's less about picking the right asset class,and more about picking the right stocks.
It just doesn't make sense anymore to buy back stock,when prices have returned to more normal levels.Companies have not been spending on economic growth,but I think that's what we're gonna see this year,Ms.Subramanian projected.
She likes the technology,industrial and energy sectors.*
In the retail sector,it's been a big improvement for JC Penney,according to Chad Green of Sterne Agee.It looks a lot better for them than it did 12 months ago.Their store looks a lot better.It looks like the old JC Penney.
The big question for them is getting their traffic back,clearing through former CEO Don Johnson's mistakes,Mr.Green noted.*
JC Penney(JCP)

Resilient Markets Recover From Ukraine Drop

World markets turned positive in Asia and Europe Tuesday,convinced there won't be military clashes anytime soon over the Ukraine crisis.The Nikkei went up 0.47 and the Hong Seng rose 0.70,optimistic that a standoff in Crimea will not escalate today as Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops to halt their exercises in Western Russia and return to base,although there is no sign of an end to the crisis,either.
US Secretary of State John Kerry departed for Kiev talks with Ukraine's interim government Monday night,raising hopes of diplomatic progress.
US stock futures followed suit,recovering most of Monday's losses,as did European indexes.The FTSE was up 1.05 as of time of publication,and the CAC rose 1.15,while the DAX climbed 0.75.The underlying sentiment in markets is bullish,and they are not going to let Ukraine end the trend unless there are further developments.
At the same time,gold and oil prices declined as traders' fears of a shooting war eased-at least momentarily.Gold was near a four month high at close of trading Monday.

What Bernanke's Testimony Means

The stock market is at all-time highs,but markets tend to seize on what they want to hear and run with it.A case in point is Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before Congress last week,which was assessed by Mohmamed El-Erian,CEO of leading asset manager PIMCO.This testimony is rather dovish,Mr.El-Erian said.Bernanke was saying that 1.The unemployment situation is unsatisfactory.2.Don't worry about inflation;it is too low.3.We have a number of instruments we can use. He's trying to strike a difficult balance between confidence and excessive risk-taking.The journey is full of ifs.The market extrapolates this to the destination.Markets are different from the Fed.They want to know where we are going,and when we're going to get there.1.The unaddressed cost and risk of unconventional policies.2.You've convinced other central banks to follow you,but does it make sense if everybody does it? The underlying economy is still fragile.The fundamentals with the technicals would call for lower yields from here.1.The real economy is weak.2.Banks have reduced risk exposure,so their ability to earn is less.It will be interesting to see how sustainable their earnings are. Mr.El-Erian,who formerly managed the Harvard endowment, is also co-Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO,along with founder Bill Gross.

Ranting and Raving:Stocks Down,Bond Yields Up

Stocks continued their downward momentum on Monday.I see a lot of companies whose stocks seem to be in the wrong place.They want to come down,cautions CNBC's Jim Cramer.
The Fed has lost control of the bond market.Everybody has to readjust.What if the ten year Treasury goes to three?A 3% Clorox is not as good as a 3% ten year.It's one of the bond market equivalents that don't work.It's just breathtaking to watch the TNX,the Treasury Yield Index,when you don't have a bond terminal.
There's a couple of higher yielding stocks and MLPs,master limited partnerships.I'm watching Brazil and the riots.Are they still gonna stage the Olympics?You can't even make money if you bet against the Olympics.
Who is gonna say the magic word that Fed fund rates are gonna go higher?That's something we don't want to hear.I feel Fed Chairman Bernanke is boxed in the corner.He has become the world's largest bond trader.
Copper under three scares me.China does worry me.I went to see a meerkat exhibition.They were all huddled together,clearly worried about the bond market.
Whirlpool has a giant Brazilian market.This is one of those "let them eat cake" situations.They're building the Olympics and forgetting the people.I rented out one of my homes for July.I need the income because of the Brazilian market.
I want the highest quality here.The earnings coming out this week will be a good tell,the popular expert investor Jim Cramer said.
The TNX-10 Year Notes closed at 25.48 on Monday,up 0.34,or 1.35%.
Whirlpool(WHR),Clorox(CLX)

Stock Market Signals-and what to do about them

I don't like stocks now,said Dennis Gartman,editor of the well-known newsletter "The Gartman Letter."I wouldn't be surprised to see 10% to the downside.After triple digit moves four out of five days,I'm on the sidelines and glad to be there.
I want to own bonds and gold.It'll be price action that brings me back in.For a while,it's a risk off environment.
What really bothers me is,the bond market is doing really well.It's up,telling you that risk is being taken off the table.The bond market is the smartest of the markets,and it's going up.The worst of the liquidation of gold may have passed.I'm holding gold in yens,and may add some in euros.
Christian Thwaites,President and CEO of Sentinel Asset Management does like some stocks.Large cap equities are still very low-priced and an attractive value,such as General Dynamics,Caterpillar,Church and Dwight.He also likes Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers.
Thomas Lee,Managing Director and US Equity Strategist at JP Morgan,said we still think we're in a secular bull market.We got a caution signal the week before last,but this is a tactical,short term call.Hedge funds are basically all in.We want to be dip buyers in areas such as materials,industrials and consumer discretionary.
General Dynamics(GD),Caterpillar(CAT),Church and Dwight(CHD),Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers(RBA)

Bill Gross:New Normal Seen Persisting in the New Year

Bill Gross,co-founder of Pacific Investment Management Company,or PIMCO,sees stubbornly high or even increased unemployment for 2013,resulting in weak fixed income and stock returns and a surge in gold prices.Mr.Gross issued his firm's "Fearless Forecast" for the new year recently.It shows basically that the economy will trundle along in the new normal as defined by PIMCO:high unemployment;slow growth;and orderly deleveraging by developed countries.
GDP growth will be 2% or less on account of globalisation,deleveraging and demographic headwinds.Stocks and bonds will return less than 5%.The market will also lack the tailwind of the Fed's quantitative easing.The future price tag of Fed policies will be in the form of inflation and devaluation of currencies,relative either to themselves or to the prices of commodities in less limitless supply,such as oil and gold.
Future growth must come from investment in education and infrastructure.It has to be less consumption-oriented.It takes a determination and a  primal-spirited momentum to put this economy back in the hands of the private sector.
Mr.Gross manages the company's iconicTotal Return Fund,which returned a strong 10.5% in 2012.The economy and global economy are limited,he pointed out.PIMCO is a two trillion dollar firm.We'll cross our fingers and we won't be totally confident,but we think we can do it again,the"Bond King"predicted.
PIMCO Total Return Fund Instl(PTTRX)

A Critical View:Does The Market Have It Right

The corporate bonds aren't telling us things are as as good as the market has been,according to Adam Parker,PhD,Chief US Equity Strategist and Managing Director at Morgan Stanley.Our house call is that there won't be any QE3 by the Fed until after the November election.People are more aggressive because of the pain train higher thing.
The year end view is a framework.You have to be tactical with the low and volatile growth and extreme ten year Treasurys.I haven't found somebody who's bearish on earnings yet.Deflation is a real risk.At some point,you'll run out of band-aids.
If the revised estimates are right,the earnings expectations are too high.About half of US companies get margin expansion on average;the analysts are saying 86%.
What matters is the fiscal cliff.I am more worried than the market.You still have very close to no economic growth next year.People could be in a different mindset in three months than they are now,Dr.Parker pointed out.
Adam Parker got his doctorate in Statistics from Boston University.He was named to Institutional Investor's All-American Team in Portfolio Strategy and Quantitative Research in 2009 and 2010.
QE3 would be the Federal Reserve's third asset purchasing program to buck the market up.
Morgan Stanley(MS)