Jeffrey Gundlach Fed Day - CNBC Closing Bell - 12 June 2024

with Scott Wapner,Steve Liesman and Jeffrey Gundlach,founder,CEO and Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital LP The interview took place in DoubleLine's Los Angeles office.The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its June meeting.Mr.Gundlach is predicting a recession and is less sure the Federal Reserve will make even one interest rate cut this year.He currently likes investing in gold and India.DoubleLine has a range of mutual funds,closed end funds,exchange traded funds and UCITS.UCITS is a European Union regulatory framework for trading mutual funds. Based in Tampa,Florida,DoubleLine is majority employee owned and employs 248.Oaktree Capital Mangement owns a 20% stake in the firm.

See India's Chandrayaan-3 lander descend to moon's surface in amazing time-lapse

Franklin Templeton CEO: Surprised if Fed Doesn't Raise Rates by 25 Bps - Bloomberg Television

Asia This Day:Where To Look for Asia-Pacific Success

Some rather disappointing data came out of East Asia last night.Japan's April Producer Price Index fell 4.2% on the year,versus an estimate of 3.2%;while China's industrial production grew 6.0% versus an estimate of 6.5%.China's April GDP slowed to 6.88% from 7.1% in March.Investors will naturally pause for a moment to consider these facts.*
As we move from a manufacturing-led Chinese economy to a consumption-led economy,we have to expect growth to slow down;but I still think you're going to find great assets to own in the China market,said BlackRock's Asia-Pacific Chairman Ryan Stork.
It's just going to take some time.You've got a very big economy;it's going to take years.I think the People's Bank of China is there;but we're going to be in a market of near-term volatility the next few quarters,there's no doubt.*
I think you'll see new,innovative investment solutions.I think China,India,Indonesia are three markets that we quite like at the moment.There's downward pressure on Japanese stocks-it's a bit overdone.From our perspective,Japan is still a really big part of our strategy,both from an institutional side and an individual wealth side.You look at the ability to own good companies in Asia.It's more of a fundamental story now,rolling up your sleeves and finding those companies.*
There's a lot of evolution that has to take place in Asia for the use of etfs.The Bank of Japan is a buyer of etfs.It creates a lot of awareness among wealth investors.The use of etfs and long/short investments will eventually find their way into wealth investor portfolios,the more tactical use of passive investing.In the multi-asset space,we have an enormous platform,great teams.We have been growing at an exceptional pace relative to the rest of the firm.We've expanded our team in the equity side;we'll be expanding in the alternative side,Mr.Stork explained.*
iShares Japan ETF (EWJ),iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI),iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA),iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO),BlackRock Inc (BLK)

Avionics Magazine :: Rockwell Collins to Install Common Avionics Architecture System on Indian CH-47Fs

Avionics Magazine :: Rockwell Collins to Install Common Avionics Architecture System on Indian CH-47Fs

Some Fed Members Still Think 2015 Rate Increase Is Best

At its September meeting,the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee declined to raise interest rates and left a sense of uncertainty over investors.Just after the meeting,three Fed members advocated raising rates this year.
I argued against the decision,St.Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said.Holding rates steady yet again seems to have created rather than reduced global macroeconomic uncertainty.*
San Francisco FRB President John Williams and Richmond FRB President Jeffrey Lacker also called for a near term rate hike.*
If 2015 is the year the Fed will raise rates,it will have to be in December,since there is no press conference scheduled for the October meeting,suggested Tony Nash,chief economist and managing partner at Complete Intelligence,who focuses on Asia.
In the US,you have a lot of people checking out of the work force between 30-55 years of age,those peak earning years,which limits the consumer.We do see opportunities in the emerging markets short term;in the longer term,debt issues are more troubling.
If we see a very small rate rise and a very slow pace,the emerging markets will suffer,but the magnitude of the suffering will be very shallow.Among the emerging markets,India has a very weak portfolio of ministers.Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to have to change it up,if he wants to improve the economy.*
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

Two More Women Hanged in India

The body of a 19-year-old woman was found hanging from a tree in Uttar Pradesh state in Northern India on Thursday.Her family claims she was raped,but a post-mortem examination couldn't confirm that.On Wednesday,a 44-year-old woman was also found hanging from a tree in the same state.Again,her family alleged rape which her post-mortem couldn't confirm.
These two deaths bring to four the number of women murdered in Uttar Pradesh since 29 May,when the bodies of two teenagers who were found to have been gang-raped were discovered hanging from a tree.Those two killings resulted in protests by hundreds of outraged citizens.
On 14 January,a Danish tourist,51,reported that she had been gang-raped and beaten in the Indian capital,New Delhi,when she asked a group of men for directions.
The pattern of violence against women in India became a burning national issue in December 2012,when a young medical student was gang-raped and killed on a bus in New Delhi.Stricter laws to protect women were passed after that incident,but with little if any effect.Less than a year later,a 20-year-old student was gang-raped and killed in Kolkata,India on 7 June 2013,her battered body found near a canal.

Monday Newsline:Change in India,Thailand;Adam Scott Wins

India's Nifty Fifty Index was up Monday on optimism over the swearing in of new Prime Minister Narendra Modi,63,who is seen as business-friendly.On Tuesday,Mr.Modi will have bilateral meetings with foreign leaders who are attending the ceremony,most notably with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif,whose presence at the event is unprecedented.Relations between the neighbouring countries have traditionally been tense.*
The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 0.29% in early Monday trading.US markets are closed for Memorial Day,which is considered the first of the summer holidays.Shanghai copper gained on declining stockpiles of the metal.*
Thailand's military coup received the approval of King Bhumibol.The army will name an interim premier today.At least hundreds of protestors demonstrated against the regime in the streets of Bangkok.*
In sport,Australia's Adam Scott won the Crowne Plaza Invitational at The Colonial in Fort Worth,Texas.The World Number One shot a nine under par 66 and beat American Jason Dufner in a playoff.He is the first person to win the Texas grand slam-all four PGA tournaments played in Texas.Scott is playing in The Memorial Tournament in Dublin,Ohio this week.
At the Formula One Monaco Grand Prix,AMG Petronas Mercedes continued its sweep of the series as teammates Nico Rosberg of Germany and Great Britain's Lewis Hamilton took first and second,respectively.Red Bull Racing's Daniel Ricciardo of Australia won the third spot in the royal box,while his teammate,the reigning World Champion Sebastian Vettel,retired with mechanical problems.

Monday Newsline:Hit Shows Canceled by China;Indian Elections End

Gold miner stocks fell in Asia today along with the price of gold on a perceived lessening of tension in Ukraine.Unofficial voting on independence for Eastern Ukraine went ahead,although clashes with Ukrainian troops were reported.There were some long lines at the polls,but voters were seen voting twice.The provisional government in Kiev and Western countries reject the vote as illegitimate and illegal.
The separatists are claiming the voters showed massive support for independence.*
The MSCI Asia Pacific index was down 0.30%.Basic materials declined 1.0% in Australia,with industrial metals falling 2.17%.Basic materials also fell in the Hang Seng Index.*
Four popular American TV shows on webcaster Sohu have been canceled by the Chinese authorities,including "Big Bang Theory." No specific reason was given.China is in transition,said Sohu founder and CEO Charles Zhang.China is in reform.It's very hard to define what is legal and what is illegal.We fight piracy and we get American TV shows into China.Look at how far we've come along,so I am still satisfied,Mr.Charles explained.China is currently drafting rules for streaming video.*
India's month-long national elections are ending today.The fiscal challenges such as inflation must be met after the euphoria of the elections,said Radhika Rao of DBS.The fiscal budget has to be tabled before July.The budget must be based on realistic expectations.
Inflation will be a risk,fueled by unfavourable weather.Rates will be hard to cut with inflation.There are also stalled infrastructure projects and the current accounts deficit.To maintain momentum,the new government must be formed and tackle the issues pretty soon,Ms.Rao pointed out.*
In sport,Lewis Hamilton of Great Britain won the Formula One Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona Sunday,increasing his lead in the overall standings.It was his fourth straight victory.His teammate Nico Rosberg of Germany came in second,and Australia's Daniel Ricciardo took third on the podium.
Another German,golfer Martin Kaymer,won The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach,Florida.It was the second biggest win for Kaymer,who has also won the PGA Championship,a major.American Jim Furyk came in second,and Sergio Garcia of Spain took third place on the leader board.

Business Briefing Asia

There's a bit more value in Apple than in Facebook,in our view,said Khiem Do,Head of Asian Equities and Chairman of the Multi-Asset Group at Baring Asset Management.I think it's more sensible now.*
Investors have to realise that 5-6% is quite a good growth rate for China.That's what we predict long term for China.I think that money is too tight in China.*
In India,extrapolating what leading prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi did for business in a province to the whole country is a delusion.The SENSEX index is overvalued,Mr.Khiem noted.*
Malaysia's Bank Rakyat will acquire its own satellite,likely in 2016.The satellite will solve the bank's problem of the huge amount of communication cost.The bank is spending up to 43.5 million dollars a year to support communication across the island chain of Indonesia.*
The tech startup firm Nix Play offered a demonstration of its Wifi Cloud Digital Photo Frame on Bloomberg TV.Sydney correspondent Dan Petrie successfully sent a selfie from his cell phone in Australia to Hong Kong.Nix Play has sold over 10,000 of these real time cloud frames.On a day to day basis,it is said to save 66% in costs to be on the cloud.*

Danish Woman Brutalised in New Delhi

Long after a sensational crime splashed across the front pages,India still has failed to solve its mob sexual violence problem.This was pointed up on Wednesday when a Danish tourist,age 51,was raped,beaten and robbed in central New Delhi by a gang of ruffians.Fifteen homeless men were detained and two were taken into custody after an extensive search Wednesday,and at least one more was being held on Thursday.
The woman said she was held at knifepoint for three hours by seven or eight men near the Connaught Place popular shopping district.She had gotten lost and approached them for directions to her hotel.They led her to a remote place where they beat,gang-raped and robbed her.
India's sexual violence issue has been in the world news since a female medical student was raped and killed by such a gang in December of 2012,raising the outcry against it to a new level.The media are focused on it,but it has eluded any efforts made so far to counter it.The burning question now is,what further measures are needed and whether existing ones will be effectively implemented.

Japan's Recovery Slows;Congress Party Setback

We have enacted industrial competitiveness,said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.We have decided to reduce the corporate tax by 2.4%.There is no end to Abenomics.*
At the same time,in April 2014 Japan's consumer tax will rise from 5% to 8%.*
Japan's GDP growth was just 1.1% annualised in Q3,revised down from 1.9%.The two main factors were flat business spending and a smaller contribution from inventories,according to the Cabinet Office.*
The wealth effect that Japan expected is not coming through in either Main Street or real property prices,said Andrew Economos,strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.You need productivity gains and sales.The sales tax basically squelches consumption.They are basically on the right track,but they need to stop making wrong decisions,Mr.Economos observed.*
India's Nifty Fifty index was up in early Monday trading on the opposition BJP's winning elections in four states,as well as becoming the single largest party in Delhi and humiliating the ruling Congress Party.Congress' Vice President Rahul Gandhi,heir of the Gandhi political dynasty,is seen by some as an example of failed leadership and low confidence even as the BJP's leader,Chief Minister of Gujarat state Narendra Modi scored a big win in the elections.National elections will occur within five months.
We will introspect seriously and take all necessary actions to rectify our mistakes and the way we function,said Congress' President Sonia Gandhi,who is Rahul's mother.*
Through these elections,the people have delivered a message,Rahul Gandhi said.That message has been taken by me and our party,not just with our minds,but in our hearts.The Congress party has the ability to transform itself,to stand up to the expectations of this country,and the Congress Party is going to do that,the presumptive prime ministerial candidate promised.*
The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 0.71% Monday morning on a strong US jobs report and Chinese data.*
In golf,Thailand's Pornanung Phatlum won the Ladies European Tour's Omega Dubai Ladies Masters on Sunday in the UAE.It was her second career victory on the LET.American Stacy Lewis was second,and Spain's Carlota Ciganda third.

Asia This Day:Chinese Reforms Spur Stocks;Indian Gold Sales Strong;Inbee Park

The Beijing leaders are promising sweeping reforms in China in the wake of the Communist Party plenum.They will allow more private investment in state-owned enterprises;relax the one-chuild policy;expand the land rights of farmers;allow local governments to issue debt;rate officials on borrowing levels and other metrics.In response,most Asian markets rose in early Monday trading.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.9% by early afternoon,with all 10 industry groups up.*
Indian families continue to bedeck their daughters with gold jewelry for their weddings,in spite of government efforts to reduce the purchase of imported gold.Gold bangles,necklaces,rings,tiaras and earrings are all in great demand this year.
Gold represents the status of the Indian family,the pride they take in themselves.Indian brides wear as much gold as their families can afford.A few hundred grams of gold would be a moderate purchase in one father's opinion.That's about thirty-two ounces.
The government raised import taxes three times this year in an attempt to reduce the current accounts deficit.According to the World Gold Council,however,Indian families continue to buy gold at a brisk pace.Demand will be up from 864.2 tonnes last year to 900-1,000 tonnes in 2013.*
South Korean Inbee Park won the LPGA Tour Rolex Player of the Year award Sunday-the overall season championship-after placing fourth at the Lorena Ochoa Invitational Presented by Banamex in Guadalajara,Mexico.Park is the first Korean ever to win the award.She's scored 6 victories this season-including 3 majors,giving her the most overall points.
American teenager Lexi Thompson won the tournament.

In Depth:US-Pakistan Relations,part 2

On Wednesday,October 23,President Barack Obama and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif held detailed discussions on the situation in Pakistan and where the two sides will go from here.President Obama commended the resolve of the government and people of Pakistan,armed forces and law enforcement agencies to defeat terrorists and praised Pakistan for its military campaign,the White House said.The two Leaders emphasized that no country's territory should be used to destabilize its neighbors.President Obama reiterated his confidence in Pakistan's commitment and dedication to nuclear security and recognized that Pakistan is fully engaged with the international community on nuclear safety and security issues.
Prime Minister Sharif expressed appreciation for the development and rehabilitation by the U.S. government of roads in Pakistan's border areas.Both sides emphasized the need to maintain and enhance the GLOC's infrastructure.
They welcomed the ongoing security transition in Afghanistan and Afghan-led preparations for next April's presidential elections.Prime Minister Sharif also underlined that the support of the international community in the repatriation of Afghan refugees and their reintegration in Afghanistan was of critical importance to Pakistan.Both Leaders called on the Taliban to join in the political process and enter into dialogue with the Afghan government.
The two Leaders stressed that the improvement in Pakistan-India bilateral relations would greatly enhance prospects for regional peace,stability and prosperity,as it would significantly benefit the lives of citizens on both sides of the border,the White House added.

China Gets It,Indian Prime Minister Says

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed satisfaction with his four day visit to China Thursday as he spoke aboard Air India One on his flight back home.There is a commitment on the part of both China and India that peace and tranquility on the border is a pre-requisite for progress in our relationship,Dr.Singh remarked.So I am reasonably satisfied that the Chinese leadership is as serious as we are in ensuring peace and tranquility on the India-China border.*
The Border Defence Cooperation Agreement was signed during the visit.It stipulates that both sides will notify the other of border patrols,and that military leaders will establish better communication with their counterparts on the other side.They will also avoid the practice of having patrols tail one another,in order to prevent antagonism.The two countries have never formally defined their border.*
A pact on the two nations' trans-border river system was also signed.I raised the issue again and there is incremental progress,the prime minister reported.They have agreed to provide data for more number of days.Also they have recognised that the behaviour of the trans-border river system is of interest to all riparian states.So our concerns have been put on the table.I hope there will be more progress in the years to come,Prime Minister Monmohan Singh said.*
In sum,it seems that India's interests were vigorously represented to China,and some significant agreements protecting them signed,over the course of the extensive dialogue between the two nuclear powers.*

Asia This Day:Indian Prime Minister Departs for Russia,China

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has embarked on a five day journey to Russia and China.While in China,he will be discussing the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement the two countries have been negotiating to avoid clashes over extensive sections of their 4,000 kilometer border.Mr.Singh will also attempt to improve trade with both Russia and China,including energy and defence projects.*
The scope of our relationship with Russia is unique,the Prime Minister said,encompassing strong and growing cooperation in areas such as defence,nuclear energy,science and technology,hydrocarbons,trade and investment.*
India and China have historical issues and there are areas of concern,Mr.Singh continued.The two governments are addressing them with sincerity and maturity,without letting them affect the overall atmosphere of friendship and cooperation.I will be discussing some of these issues as part of strategic communication between leaders with a forward-looking and problem-solving approach.*
Besides arms purchases from Russia,while in Moscow he will also discuss completion of a nuclear reactor Russia has been building on India's southern coast that has caused safety concerns.*
In April,Indian and Chinese troops faced off for three weeks in a remote Himalayan desert region,when India accused Chinese soldiers of intruding 20 kilometers/12 miles into Indian territory.Another standoff occurred in August.*
China's Fosun International is buying 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza in New York City for 725 million dollars.It is the largest ever NYC purchase by a Chinese buyer.JP Morgan Chase will relocate most of its employees from the iconic 60 storey tower,which has 2.2 million square feet of office space,to other sites in the city.The US is China's number one choice for real estate investing;Canada is second.*
In golf,South Korean Jin Jeong won the European Tour's ISPS Handa Perth International in Australia Sunday,defeating England's Ross Fisher in a playoff.Australians Brody Ninyette and Dimitrios Papadatos,along with Englishman Danny Willett,tied for fifth place.*
JP Morgan Chase(JPM)

Asia This Day:India Craves Growth;US Default Impacts

Tapering will have an impact globally,and India cannot escape,said Chandra Kochhar,CEO of ICICI Bank.India's growth rate has come down 4.5%.We have to take India's growth rate back.If we don't,investors will stand there waiting for growth to come back.*
There's a virtuous cycle that can start if you bring the growth rate back.The investment story has fallen off currently.We need to make sure projects are approved and the approval is constant,and not withdrawn,Ms.Kochhar advised.*
India's trade with the US was 92.5 billion dollars last year.*
Japan,Indonesia and Hong Kong markets are closed today for holidays.The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell 0.14% in early Monday trading on more than estimated Chinese consumer price inflation,and less than estimated Chinese exports,as well as the US debt impasse.In Australia,stocks were also hurt by Oz Minerals cutting its full year output forecast and the recent decline in gold prices.*
India's Nifty Fifty futures index was down 0.13%.*
Japan holds 1.14 trillion of US Government debt.Finance Minister Tara Aso said Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and the US Government has an understanding of what default would mean;but we must question whether Congress does.Nonetheless,we expect an agreement to be reached.*
The consequences of the US defaulting on its debt are just unthinkable,said Sacha Tihanyi of Scotiabank.What would happen?A massive risk-off event across the world.A massive outflow of funds from the equity and bonds space.Asian currencies would fare the worst.
It's a good idea to diversify away from the US dollar as the world's reserve currency the way China has called for,but they can't just wholesale run away from US Treasuries.Diversifying has to be a gradual process.
China's looking OK.I'm still constructive on the currency.The CPI inflation was food-driven.I'm not worried about that.Imports remain fairly robust-a testament to the health of the Chinese economy,Mr.Tihanyi observed.*
In sport,Sebastian Vettel of Germany won the Formula One Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka City on Sunday,with Australia's Mark Webber second,and Romain Grosjean of France third on the podium.
The Sime Darby LPGA Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur was won by American teenager Lexi Thompson,18,while China's Shanshan Feng was second,and Suzanne Petterson of Norway finished third.*
Bank of Nova Scotia(BNS)

Asia This Day:Markets Fall on US Shutdown Worry

The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 1.1% in early Monday trading on fears of a US Government shutdown at midnight because of the budget impasse in Washington.All 10 industry groups in the index retreated.*
Also looming in Washington is the conflict in Congress over raising the debt ceiling,which is necessary for the US Government to continue borrowing the money it needs to sustain itself.The decline in Asian stocks is really a matter of selling into the strength of the Asia Pacific index's 7% gain in September,in light of the impending double fiscal crisis in US Government finances.*
Both Hong Kong and mainland China markets will be closed Tuesday for a holiday,and mainland markets won't reopen till October 8.*
The HSBC-Markit Economics Performance Manufacturing Index for China came in at 50.2 in September versus 50.1 in August,missing the estimate.*
A comment by Gurbat on Bloomberg's website said the BSE Sensex is poised to increase its downward momentum.The only bright hope is the holiday season for the next six weeks.But given current dynamics the best you can hope for is a retest of highs this year.Added faintandfuzzy:Nice to see US politicians acting like children again...taking the rest of the world economy with them.*
About 19.6% of Hong Kong's citizens are now poor,a new report for the territory's Chief Executive said.Home prices there have doubled since 2009.A family of three has a median income of 23,100 Hong Kong/2979 US dollars per month,according to government figures.
Poverty affects Hong Kong's harmony and stability,thus affecting its long term competitiveness,Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying said Saturday.In 2012,the number of millionaires in Hong Kong rose 35.7%,to 114,000,a Cap Gemini-RBC report indicated.

Asia This Day:China Manufacturing;Singapore Grand Prix

Japanese markets are closed Monday for the autumnal equinox holiday.Hong Kong's market was closed until after lunch because of Typhoon Usagi,which crossed the territory without causing serious injury or damage.*
Steve Brice,chief international strategist at Standard Charterd,said the tapering will happen at some point,and that will drain liquidity from the market.Expect continuing volatility for the Indian market.We're not convinced that the Chinese authorities want a significant rebound in Chinese growth.There's been good data,but we're not convinced and haven't bought into a major bull market in China just yet.*
We like the European stock market for a 6-12 month time horizon.We're still relatively constructive on the US.We're waiting for the earnings.We want to see what happens on the cost side.*
The HSBC flash PMI showed that China manufacturing data beat its estimate,causing stocks to rise in early Monday trading.The unofficial index rose to 51.2 in September from 50.1 in August,reaching its highest level since March.The official data comes out in October.*
Sebastian Vettel of Germany won the Formula One Singapore Grand Prix,which was held at night on a challenging street course,solidifying his overall lead for Red Bull Racing in the championship race.Spain's Fernando Alonso was second for Ferrari,and Kimi Raikkonen of Finland finished third for Lotus.A big fireworks display was held immediately the race ended.*
The MSCI Asia Pacific index was up 0.32% in early Monday trading.

Asia This Day-plus Syria

Australian elections have been called for Saturday 7 September.This sent the ASX 200 index up 1.04%.*India's GDP for Q2 was up 4.4 year over year,down from 4.8 in Q1.The country's inflation and fiscal deficits are very high,noted Rajiv Biswas,Chief Asia Economist at IHS.*China's official August PMI was 51.0,indicating that a manufacturing recovery is underway.*You have to approach it from a corporate governance point of view,said Sam Le Cornu,Portfolio Manager at Macquarie Asia.You need to do a lot of work,meeting with management personally.We particularly like consumer discretionary.We really like Chinese equities.We're buying the Hang Seng.*We have a very strong ASEAN watch list.We're waiting for prices to come down.*EM is cheap.We're staying long China.We like North Asia.We're adding to Korea and like Taiwan.*We're looking for high quality management and strong balance sheets.We still say today Asia is full of risk.Our job as analysts is to quantify risk,Mr.Le Cornu told Bloomberg TV.*The MSCI Asia Pacific index was up 0.39% in early Monday trading.Gold and oil prices fell on the delay of US military action against Syria,which is widely seen as weakness.This goes to the core of American credibility in foreign policy and I believe Congress will do the right thing,Secretary of State John Kerry said.The President of the United States has the right to do this.He doesn't have to get approval.*Members of Congresss got lengthy classified breifings on Syria Sunday by administration officials,but some expressed a high degree of scepticism.*Syrian opposition leaders are bitterly critical of the delay,while Syrian officials reportedly believe Congress will not approve a military strike against them.