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With Global Economy Still Suffering,GDP Forecast Lowered

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3% on a number of factors,including China's stock market turbulence and the Greek debt crisis.As well,both the US and Canadian economies have been downgraded by the IMF.A 20% surge in the U.S. dollar brought on by investors taking refuge in US assets has been crimping exports;while in Canada,falling commodity prices have hindered that natural resource-rich country's economic performance.Still,in 2016,the IMF is predicting global growth to rise to 3.8%.
The end result is not a very impressive number,said IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard,but it's not a catastrophe,either.We're very much where we expected to be.
The Fed can wait a bit longer to raise rates.We're not very far from where we want to be in the US.Take one step back,the US is doing fine.
There has always been a disconnect between the Chinese stock market and the Chinese economy.It may have an effect on spending,but it's more or less octagonal.When you have exchange rates and stock prices moving quickly as they do in China,you don't know how you can handle it.
Any deal in Greece has to have two parts:
1.The Greeks have to do something.
2.There must be aid and debt relief.
The post-financial crisis world is one of high debt,and it doesn't take much,with these debt dynamics,to go wrong.We have to be ready to see other episodes of that kind.*

Commentary:Minorities and America's Future

By all accounts,and especially that of the 2010 US Census,a dramatic demographic shift is underway in the United States.According to demographer William Frey,author of "Diversity Explosion:How New Racial Demographics Are Changing America,"the impact of rising minority groups will be similar in scope to the rise of the Baby Boomers.Couple surging Latino and Asian population growth with a declining white birth rate and you realize that these minorities will fill in and take the place of whites.Minorities were the largest component of newborns for the first time last year.
Pew Research projects that,by 2050,the three biggest minorities will together be the majority in America,with a 51% share of the population,and 47% of Americans being white.The breakdown of major minority percentages for 2050 is 29% Hispanic;13% African American;and 9% Asian.Native American/Native Alaskan was not quantified.
The 2010 Census was pivotal because of the number of white children being born.This is a bigger deal than I thought it was,Mr.Frey told noted talk show host Diane Rehm,together with the numbers of Hispanics and Asians being born.And 30% of suburbs are losing whites,either because they are dying and not being replaced,or moving to inner cities.The vibrancy of suburbs tomorrow depends on minorities moving into them,Mr.Frey points out.Witness the problem of fading suburban shopping malls.
Interracial marriage becoming more prevalent is an indication of greater diversity in the US population.Now 8% of all marriages and 15% of new marriages in America are interracial.Four in ten of Asian and Hispanic marriages are mixed marriages today.Who would have thought that Latinos would flock to Omaha,Nebraska 20 years ago?Yet that is just what is happening today.
What needs to be done?We need to educate minority youth so they will be able to fill the many jobs in fields such as medicine and technology,not shunt them off into a corner at the nation's peril.They need to be economically mainstreamed.Their aspirations are the same as their white compatriots'.The minority youth are a big part of the destiny of tomorrow's America.Embrace the change,because you cannot escape it even if you wanted to.As former President Bill Clinton says,make change your friend.

In Depth:US-Pakistan Relations,part 1

Last Wednesday,President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan had a wide-ranging discussion on matters of mutual interest to the two countries.They acknowledged the substantial progress in the bilateral relationship over the past year and noted its resiliency,the White House said.President Obama conveyed appreciation for Pakistan's internal and regional security challenges and affirmed that a peaceful,prosperous and democratic Pakistan was an essential partner for the United States in the advancement of shared goals of peace,security and socioeconomic development in South Asia.
Both Leaders welcomed the resumption of the US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue and reaffirmed its importance as the suitable framework for guiding the bilateral relationship.Secretary Kerry will host the forthcoming Ministerial-level Strategic Dialogue by March 2014.They also decided the strategic priorities for the working groups,including:1.Law Enforcement and Counterterrorism 2.Economics and Finance 3.Energy 4.Security,Strategic Stability,and Non-Proliferation;and 5.the Defense Consultation Group.
Taking note of the robust bilateral defense cooperation between the two countries-including recent miltary engagements,exercises and consultations on regional security-President Obama and Prime Minister Sharif expressed satisfaction with the positive momentum achieved in defense realtions and reaffirmed that this partnership should continue to grow and endure.
The two Leaders noted with satisfaction that the Ground Lines of Communication(GLOCs) are facilitating the movement of US and ISAF cargo through Pakistan.The US plans to continue providing assistance and support,including training and equipment to Pakistan's military and security services.The two Leaders decided to strengthen their cooperation,including in regional maritime security.President Obama noted Pakistan's positive efforts to counter IED's and both leaders resolved to continue working together to disrupt the threat posed by these devices.

Asia This Day:Pakistan-US Relations;Indian Grand Prix

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif concluded several days of dialogue in Washington when he met with President Barack Obama on Wednesday.Mr.Sharif,63,had begun his unprecedented third term as Prime Minister on June 5,2013 following a smooth democratic process.A noted businessman,he owns the industrial conglomerate Ittefaq Group.
Speaking at the White House,the two Leaders assessed their talks for the news media in a serious yet relaxed atmosphere.To see a peaceful transition was an enormous milestone for Pakistan and a testament to the Pakistani people's desire for democracy,the President said.The United States considers Pakistan to be an important strategic partner.
We discussed how the United States could potentially be helpful on energy projects and infrastructure projects.The Prime Minister emphasized how trade can be a powerful engine for growth as well.
We talked about security.We agreed we need to find constructive ways to partner together,in ways that respect both countries.Both the Pakistani people and the American people have suffered from terrorism in the past.It can be a source of strength for our two countries to work together in this way.I pledged to fully brief the Prime Minister and his government as we make progress not only for the Afghan elections,but to long term progress in the region.
The resources India and Pakistan are spending on arms would be better spent on social programs,for the good of the world.We want want to be fully supportive of continued progress in Pakistan.As a young man,I had the opportunity to visit Pakistan,the President recalled warmly.
Despite occasional misunderstanding and tensions,the fundamental good will between the American and Pakistani people will be reflected in our governmental relations,President Obama said.*
I have just had a most cordial exchange of views with the President,Prime Minister Sharif said.Over the past 65 years,our two nations have traveled together.I advised him of our domestic and foreign policy priorities:the economy;education;and combating extremism.We both agreed focusing on these areas is indispensable.
Pakistan and the United States have a strong ongoing counterterrorism cooperation.I raised the issue of drones and the need to end these strikes.Let there be no doubt about our commitment for a peaceful and stable Afghanistan.I told President Obama about my sincere commitment to build a peaceful relationship with India.I also assured the President as a responsible nuclear state,Pakistan would continue to act with restraint.
I look forward to welcoming you and Mrs.Obama to Pakistan,Mr.Sharif concluded.*
In sport,Red Bull Racing scored their fourth straight double victory at the Formula One Indian Grand Prix in New Delhi Sunday,taking both the constructor's title and the world driving championship with Sebastian Vettel,who seemed to be quite the fan favourite in India.It was Vettel's tenth win of the season,and his sixth straight,as he enters the upper echelon of drivers in the history of the sport.
Vettel,26,was beside himself with joy,ignoring his instructions to follow the staid post-race protocol of F1.Instead,he made several donuts with his car to the delight of the fans,then got out of the car and made prostrations to the crowd.Their were no boos such as he faced in Europe as he mounted the podium;only chants of approval from his legion of Indian followers.
For me to join people like Prost,Fangio and Michael(Shumacher) is unbelievable,Vettel said.So many people I have to thank that have been teaching me a lot.I don't feel old.Maybe in 10 years' time I'm a little bit better at understanding what we have done this far,the German driver reflected.At his age,the great Alain Prost had yet to achieve his first Grand Prix win.*
In golf,the CIMB Classic at Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club,Malaysia,the historic first ever PGA Tour event in Asia,was won by American Ryan Moore,30,in a playoff with his compatriot Gary Woodland.It was Moore's third career victory and his second in twelve months.He has played on the PGA Tour for nine years.
Next weekend,the PGA Tour moves on to Shanghai for its second and final Asian stop of the 2013-14 season.It is generally recognised as being the pre-eminent tour in professional golf.*

Asia This Day:Markets Fall on US Shutdown Worry

The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 1.1% in early Monday trading on fears of a US Government shutdown at midnight because of the budget impasse in Washington.All 10 industry groups in the index retreated.*
Also looming in Washington is the conflict in Congress over raising the debt ceiling,which is necessary for the US Government to continue borrowing the money it needs to sustain itself.The decline in Asian stocks is really a matter of selling into the strength of the Asia Pacific index's 7% gain in September,in light of the impending double fiscal crisis in US Government finances.*
Both Hong Kong and mainland China markets will be closed Tuesday for a holiday,and mainland markets won't reopen till October 8.*
The HSBC-Markit Economics Performance Manufacturing Index for China came in at 50.2 in September versus 50.1 in August,missing the estimate.*
A comment by Gurbat on Bloomberg's website said the BSE Sensex is poised to increase its downward momentum.The only bright hope is the holiday season for the next six weeks.But given current dynamics the best you can hope for is a retest of highs this year.Added faintandfuzzy:Nice to see US politicians acting like children again...taking the rest of the world economy with them.*
About 19.6% of Hong Kong's citizens are now poor,a new report for the territory's Chief Executive said.Home prices there have doubled since 2009.A family of three has a median income of 23,100 Hong Kong/2979 US dollars per month,according to government figures.
Poverty affects Hong Kong's harmony and stability,thus affecting its long term competitiveness,Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying said Saturday.In 2012,the number of millionaires in Hong Kong rose 35.7%,to 114,000,a Cap Gemini-RBC report indicated.

Syria:What the President Must Do

A new report coming out of Syria says that the Bashar al-Assad regime dropped an incendiary bomb such as napalm on a school playground,inflicting more horrible injuries on its own people.The focus of the international community,however,remains on its alleged chemical weapons attack of August 21,which killed up to a thousand Syrians.A team of UN inspectors remains in Syria tonight,collecting blood samples from the victims and interviewing them.They are planning to leave on Saturday and deliver their report next week.*At the same time,the US government will be releasing its own report based on the intelligence it has been gathering about the attack-probably on Friday.Reportedly this includes intercepts of conversations about the chemical weapons attack.We don't have the crib notes of Assad to his commanders,said Congressman Mike Rogers,R-Michagan,Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee,but when you put it all together,it is very clear that Assad was responsible.We know how the command and control works in these units.It was clear there was some degree of command and control being exercised.Looking at all the levels and the different pieces,the answer is definitely yes.*Under the War Powers Act,I don't believe there has to be a vote on military action,but you have to have these discussions with Congress.You have to bring the members in.I think the administration is obligated to do that,Congressman Rogers indicated.The president does not have to get Congress' approval for miltary action,added Senator John McCain,R-Arizona,an elder statesman on national security issues,but he is required to consult with Congress,and it would be in his best interest to conslut with Congress,rather than act in a unilateral fashion,the senator advised.*In that spirit,the Obama administration held a 90 minute conference call with members of Congress Thursday evening.Partcipating were Secretary of State John Kerry;Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel;National Security Advisor Susan Rice;and Director of National Intelligence James R.Clapper.According to a member of Congress on the call,the admisitration said it has no doubt the Syrian government was behind the attack,but no decision has been made on military action,and there is no timetable.They have a broad range of options.Both action and inaction on Syria carry risk and consequence,Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel reportedly said on the conference call.

General Electric:Viewpoint Today

It just is today the most resilient economic system on earth,GE CEO Jeff Immelt said of the United States.The stakes are so darn high for the country and for all of us.Nervous laughter is a bad strategy.
We're asking for the same territorial system that our global competitors have.We're kind of like the last American company that competes in the fields that we're in.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been consistent to his word.It's not bad to have one person in power who's been more or less consistent since 2007.
If the fiscal cliff happens,that's a failure of governance-and it shouldn't happen,Mr.Immelt added.
Jeff Immelt,56,has been leading GE,the world's third largest company,since September 7,2001.He has been named to Barron's "World's Best CEOs" list three times.Mr.Immelt is also head of the President's Jobs Council.
General Electric(GE)

Peterson Foundation's Deficit Alarm

David Walker,President and CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation,feels we have to learn from history and not repeat the mistakes others have made.In the short term,the U.S. is a flight to safety.In terms of public debt,however,we're 10 years away from being Greece.The oil spill shows us corporations do not have duties of loyalty to countries;they are loyal to shareholders.Washington is not the real world and,frankly,New York isn't,either.
The four factors that caused the subprime crisis exist for the government's own finances,Mr.Walker thinks.We're on the path to moving to where the Southern European countries are.The clock is ticking and time is not ticking in our favor.We cannot allow the extremes to polarize our political system.The American people are in the sensible center,and that's where you get things done.Eighty percent of the American people see the budget deficit as a priority,David Walker observed.
On June 26,the Peterson Foundation and others are holding a national town meeting on this subject.It's never been done before,Mr.Walker pointed out.
David M. Walker was Comptroller General of the United States from 1998 to 2008.As the nation's chief auditor,he was head of the Government Accountability Office,where he highlighted wasteful government spending.

Saudi Prince Very Close

Prince Alwaleed bin Sultan,a leading investor in U.S. companies,has been expressing his thoughts about the state of the country he clearly feels deeply involved with.The prince,who will be 55 in March,said he's not sure the U.S. is on the right track.It is down,but not out.Mr.Obama needs more time.He has a tremendous amount on his plate:the deficit,the health care situation,as well as the financial crisis.There are so many issues under the table:Social Security,Medicare-they are time bombs.I'd like to get health care behind us and focus on job growth and the Middle East,Prince Alwaleed remarked.
President Obama has to prove he is as tough as former president George W. Bush was,the prince feels.The U.S. cannot be at all lenient on terrorists.Thank God their latest attempt was prevented.On the other hand,profiling is wrong.Remember Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh?Are all Oklahomans terrorists?the prince asked rhetorically.
Prince Alwaleed,a slight man with a full head of salt-and-pepper hair,owns 5.7% of NewsCorp,parent of Fox News and The Wall Street Journal.He considers it an alliance.It's a core,strategic investment that will never be sold,he insisted.It's a well-run empire by Rupert Murdoch and son James.Prince Alwaleed also owns stakes in Time Warner Communications and Citigroup.The owner of a stable of fine horses,the prince is more than an investor in the U.S.;his evident passion and knowledge confirms that he is also a close friend of America.

Canada Approves Nortel Deal

The Canadian Ministry of Industry has signed off on Ciena Corporation's acquisition of Nortel's Metro Ethernet Networks business.Nortel is undergoing a major restructuring.The Toronto telecom firm has been shedding a number of businesses,selling assets to Hitachi,Avaya and GENBAND.Nortel's business spans more than 150 countries,bringing in 2008 revenue of more than 10 billion dollars U.S.It is currently in bankruptcy proceedings.Nortel shares are traded on the OTC pink sheets.
Ciena had already obtained U.S. approval of the deal.Ciena CEO Gary Smith said they have always believed that the transaction provided a substantial benefit to Canada and the Canadian marketplace.The deal could roughly double Ciena's revenue and workforce over time.The company,headquartered in Linthicum,Maryland,employs around 2100 workers and posted revenue of 176.3 million dollars in its last fiscal quarter.It specializes in fiber optic technologies,communications networking equipment,software,services,processing systems and products.Ciena is listed on the NASDAQ exchange.

Citimortgage Faces the Headwinds

It looks like home prices are gonna be under pressure for the next couple of quarters,says Sanjiv Das of Citimortgage,but he's cautiously optimistic with all the government programs aiding homeowners.We've really been out there trying to help,but face headwinds such as unemployment and homeowners owing more than their homes are worth,Mr.Das explained.We are massively increasing the number of modifications;we are reducing rates and extending the terms.
For Q3,we did substantially better than the industry,Mr.Das held.I can't fight the headwind of unemployment,he admitted.The thing here is to keep aggressively modifying as many loans as we can to keep people in their homes.In Q3,we processed 175,000 mortgages.The modifications are tailored to individual circumstances,Rajiv Das pointed out.The U.S. government is scrutinizing whether the banks are helping enough homeowners with its aid.

Wellpoint Enrollment Down

Feeling the impact of the financial crisis,health insurer Wellpoint's enrollment was 34.6 million at the end of Q1-down 2.3% as companies cut health benefits for their employees.CEO Angela Braly says we're just now getting into the health care discussion.We know the Obama administration has been very interested in listening.Of those who are uninsured,25% are eligible for government programs;25% can afford their own insurance;we need a bridge for the rest,so they can get the coverage they need,Ms.Braly believes.Wellpoint is America's largest private health insurer,covering one in nine citizens through its Blue Cross plans.It is a holding of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.

Health Uncle Early Edition:Mental Health

I will not be in on Friday,so I am publishing early.The state of mental health in America is not looking good at this point.There have been nine mass murders in the past month,many of them murder-suicides.Several of them were also committed by the unemployed.Surely the financial crisis is a factor in tipping people over the edge.No one should be complacent about their state of mind in this economic environment.You may be more troubled than you realize.Consider relaxing your own train of thought with the best spring break you can manage.Read a neglected book or go for that postponed walk.It doesn't have to be elaborate.Have a blessed holiday.

The Nature of Progress

America and Europe must reach out to the vast majority of Muslims who seek only peace and a better life,President Obama thinks.We can't get there alone.Progress is slow;it comes in fits and starts.We've just emerged from an era of irresponsibility.It is a revolutionary world that we live in.We must renew this relationship for a new generation in a new century.I am confident we can achieve the promise of a new day,the President concluded.Wearing a gray suit,white shirt and light blue tie,the tall leader took questions from the audience at Rhenus Sports Arena bfore shaking hands with them to the accompaniment of "Stars and Stripes Forever."Not since President John F. Kennedy in the early 1960s has a president been so in touch with foreign crowds.The Europeans couldn't believe they got to greet Mr.Obama,congratulating each other on the singular occasion.

Security and Prosperity

I've come to Europe this week to renew our partnership,Mr.Obama continued.Together we must forge common solutions,he urged.America is changing,but it cannot be America alone that changes.All of us are moving forward.We are ushering in a new era of responsiblity.Trade wars have no victors.As we restore our common prosperity,we must stand up for our common security.Those terrorists of 9-11 are still plotting today.We have no interest in occupying Afghanistan.Now we need an alliance that is even stronger than when it brought down a mighty wall in Berlin.This is one of our central tasks.This is the generation that must also stop the pollution that is threatening our planet.We all know that time is running out.Let us meet that responsibiliy together.I am confident we can meet it,but we have to begin today,Mr.Obama feels.

A Drifting Alliance

The European Union buildings of Strasbourg were born of the blood of the first half of the 20th century,President Obama recalled.The Marshall Plan was an unprecedented effort that secured prosperity.Without firing a single shot,the NATO alliance would prevent the iron curtain of communism from descending across Europe.This generation cannot stand still.This is our generation;this is our time,and I am confident we can meet any challenge-as long as we are together.In recent years,we've allowed our alliance to drift.In America,there is a failure to appreciate Europe's leading role in the world.In Europe,there is an anti-Americanism that is casual,but can also be insidious.These attitudes are not wise;they do not represent the truth,the new president instructed.

Who Obama Is:Leading in Strasbourg

President Barack Obama was greeted enthusiastically by European young people at the Rhenus Sports Arena in Strasbourg,France.The president was in the middle of his first overseas trip since his inauguration in January.It's important to hear from you,the President said,not just speak to you.We stand at a crossroads.The same forces that have brought us closer together have also brought us new dangers,such as nuclear weapons.The pollution of cars from Boston or smokestacks in Beijing can reach other countries.The economic crisis is proving the fact of interdependence.There's certainly enough blame to go around,and the U.S. bears its share.The only way forward is by a persistent way to combat fear and want wherever they are found,Mr.Obama told the large assembly.

What Al-Qaida Brings

Al-Qaida offers the people of Pakistan nothing but destruction,President Obama stated.We support legislation authorizing 1.5 billion dollars of aid to Pakistan every year for the next five years.The creation of opportunity zones in the border region is a down payment on our own future.We must isolate al-Qaida from the Pakistani people.We will launch a standing trilateral dialogue between the United States,Pakistan and Afghanistan,to include intelligence-sharing.We must reverse the Taliban's gains.Our allies have borne a heavy burden.Now we must make a commitment that will accomplish our goals,Mr.Obama feels.