With Global Economy Still Suffering,GDP Forecast Lowered

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3% on a number of factors,including China's stock market turbulence and the Greek debt crisis.As well,both the US and Canadian economies have been downgraded by the IMF.A 20% surge in the U.S. dollar brought on by investors taking refuge in US assets has been crimping exports;while in Canada,falling commodity prices have hindered that natural resource-rich country's economic performance.Still,in 2016,the IMF is predicting global growth to rise to 3.8%.
The end result is not a very impressive number,said IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard,but it's not a catastrophe,either.We're very much where we expected to be.
The Fed can wait a bit longer to raise rates.We're not very far from where we want to be in the US.Take one step back,the US is doing fine.
There has always been a disconnect between the Chinese stock market and the Chinese economy.It may have an effect on spending,but it's more or less octagonal.When you have exchange rates and stock prices moving quickly as they do in China,you don't know how you can handle it.
Any deal in Greece has to have two parts:
1.The Greeks have to do something.
2.There must be aid and debt relief.
The post-financial crisis world is one of high debt,and it doesn't take much,with these debt dynamics,to go wrong.We have to be ready to see other episodes of that kind.*

What Kind of Bull

Mark Skousen,PhD,editor of the newsletter "Forecasts&Strategies,"describes himself as a cautious bull.There's a lot of positive news,he says,but the easy money has been made.Moody's just threatened to downgrade Treasury securities,and the tax increase threat could hurt the market into next year.
Dr.Skousen likes the iShares Hong Kong exchange-traded fund.He likes Hong Kong trade because mainland China is increasing its demand for Hong Kong products.He has been shorting the Euro for the U.S. dollar,but he doesn't think the Greek problem will hurt Asia.
Mark Skousen also likes the private equity firm American Capital,Ltd.Hedge fund magnate John Paulson bought 13% of it.Although it is in restructuring,it could double in value.American Capital,which is publicly traded,has 264 employees.It is located in Bethesda,Maryland.
Dr.Skousen is the author of several books,including "Investing In One Lesson."His newsletter is available by subscription only.

Of Things Known and Unknown

U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson admitted that the thing we don't know is,is there fraud going on,is there collusion.I won't have a view until I see the evidence,Mr.Paulson stated.Naked short-selling is wrong anywhere.Our banking system is safe and sound.I don't think you're going to see any insured depositors lose a penny.The most important thing we can do to support the dollar is have confidence in our economy,he added.In a black suit,light blue shirt and red tie,and seated before a backdrop of U.S. Treasury seals,Mr.Paulson held that America's long term prospects are strong compared with any other economy.

Inside Exxon Mobil

According to Exxon Mobil(XOM) CEO Rex Tillerson,Exxon has a robust,very deep portfolio of opportunities,yet the very high cost environment is beginning to show up in its projects.Exxon's management systems help it mitigate about a third of the cost pressures through technology,project planning and execution.You have to grow a business organically,but where it makes sense,Exxon is always evaluating acquisitions.It has a unique capability to integrate them and benefit its shareholders.The high price of oil is partly due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar.That amounts to a third of the disconnect with supply and demand.Geopolitical uncertainties and speculation also contribute to the disconnect,Mr.Tillerson said.