With Global Economy Still Suffering,GDP Forecast Lowered

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3% on a number of factors,including China's stock market turbulence and the Greek debt crisis.As well,both the US and Canadian economies have been downgraded by the IMF.A 20% surge in the U.S. dollar brought on by investors taking refuge in US assets has been crimping exports;while in Canada,falling commodity prices have hindered that natural resource-rich country's economic performance.Still,in 2016,the IMF is predicting global growth to rise to 3.8%.
The end result is not a very impressive number,said IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard,but it's not a catastrophe,either.We're very much where we expected to be.
The Fed can wait a bit longer to raise rates.We're not very far from where we want to be in the US.Take one step back,the US is doing fine.
There has always been a disconnect between the Chinese stock market and the Chinese economy.It may have an effect on spending,but it's more or less octagonal.When you have exchange rates and stock prices moving quickly as they do in China,you don't know how you can handle it.
Any deal in Greece has to have two parts:
1.The Greeks have to do something.
2.There must be aid and debt relief.
The post-financial crisis world is one of high debt,and it doesn't take much,with these debt dynamics,to go wrong.We have to be ready to see other episodes of that kind.*

Asia This Day:Chinese Oil Majors Strong;Julia Gillard's GDP Vision

Sinopec Corporation beat earnings estimates on its refining business.The company,an integrated oil and petrochemical firm,is China's largest refiner and had Q3 net income of 2.93 billion dollars,versus an estimate of 2.27 billion.
Petrochemical prices rebounded,and demand for petrochemicals will continue to rise.
Sinopec's profit growth was up 12.4%.It was upgraded to outperform at Sanford C Bernstein.
CNOOC Ltd.,China's largest oil and gas producer,had much stronger product growth in Q3 and this will continue into 2013.The Canadian government must make a decision on the CNOOC-Nexen merger by mid-November.We think it's gonna go through,said  Bernstein's Neil Beveridge.It's in Canada's interest to have good business ties with China.We like both CNOOC and Sinopec.
Nexen,Inc. is an oil and gas exploration and  production firm with operations in the UK North Sea;offshore West Africa;the Gulf of Mexico;and Western Canada.
Australia is aiming to raise its GDP per capita to 73,000 dollars per person and reach the global top ten of that measure.It is currently number 13 on the GDP per capita list.
Austarlia wants to boost the Asian component of its GDP to one-third.It would like to give every student the chance to learn an Asian language.It's a vision,the increasingly popular Prime Minister Julia Gillard said;it's gonna take some time to deliver.
Sinopec Corporation(SNP),CNOOC Ltd.(CEO),iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund(EWA)

What To Expect From 2012:A Goldman Sachs Economic Perspective-plus some stock tips

A tone of caution pervades the thoughts of a leading analyst when he views the 2012 prospects for the market and the rest of the economy.Jan Hatzius,Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs,feels that 2012 will see sluggish growth,with continuing repair of built-up imbalances.Recovery of the labor market will be very slow and halting.We suspect the first half of 2012 is gonna be a little slower.We suspect that the truth is decent growth,but a little softer.
We're still in a very macro-driven environment,with high correlation.We do think Europe is in a significant recession,and the impact will be greater on the U.S. than it has been so far-a full percentage point greater.
I think there will be a slight increase in housing market normalcy.Small businesses have done worse than large because they are more linked to construction,and more dependent on banks for financing,rather than capital markets.
We have a depressed economy.We think real GDP will be 1.5-2%.It's unlikely that you'll get major initiatives from Washington before 2013,in a presidential election year.Unemployment is not directly under the control of policymakers,although it's politically unacceptable,Dr.Hatzius observed.
Update:Goldman Sachs believes Vodafone may appreciate more than 50% over the next two years.It has downgraded MasterCard to neutral from buy,and Accenture to neutral from outperform.MetLife has been upgraded from neutral to buy.
Goldman Sachs(GS),MetLife(MET),MasterCard(MA),Vodafone(VOD),Accenture(ACN)

Wall Street Partner:Improvement Will Be Muted

Alison Deans,a partner at the newly-formed Varick Asset Management and a CNBC contributor,says corporate America is gonna do very well in 2011,but fears of rising interest rates will hold back multiples expansion-or improvement in measures of a company's financial well being-while that change is happening.We will be beneath 2007's all time highs.
What's coming through from Washington is more important for business confidence.The increase in hiring will take place in the second half of 2011.We're looking at 2.5-3%Gross Domestic Product growth for the new year.There will be a lackluster first half,and a better second half.
Unemployment may possibly dip beneath 9% in 2011,Ms.Deans thinks.A Wall Street veteran,she had previously worked for Lehman Brothers and Neuberger Berman.

Echoing Sentiments:This Recovery

Gross Domestic Product for Q2 came in at an anemic 2.4%,which was weaker than expected.Tom Porcelli of RBC Capital Markets says that,normally,recovery means 4-5% GDP growth.It seems like a pretty good environment for investors to continue their Treasury purchases.If you look at revenue increases,they are only at 9% year over year.The economy still remains very,very moribund.
This sentiment is echoed by Bill Dunkelberg,Chief Economist of the National Federation of Independent Business.The recovery this time has been led by rebuilding inventory,Mr.Dunkelberg observed.For the last two years,we got rid of everything we could trying to stay in business,and now that is being replaced.
Consumer sales aren't there,and profits are down.The consumer doesn't feel comfortable doing anything more than what is absolutely necessary,Bill Dunkelberg noted.
Reports released this morning showed a drop in both factory orders and pending home sales.Under such conditions,triple digit market gains may be unsustainable.
Royal Bank of Canada(RBC)

More Struggle Ahead,Economists Say

The National Association for Business Economics has released the results of a survey of economists.According to the participants,the U.S. may avoid a recession,but growth will be anemic for the rest of 2008.Jobs and capital spending will be stable,as industry demand is rising across the board.The economy will be struggling for a few more quarters.Selling prices rose at the highest rate since Q1 of 2007.Higher materials costs were reported by 75% of the participants,which is a record.Increased capital spending was expected by 40% of the economists,which is down only 2% from Q1 2008.Overall,the NABE survey charts a difficult but passable road in the medium term.This week,Gross Domestic Product and employment reports could move the markets.

Del Monte Picks Winners

Del Monte Foods(DLM) has tied itself to a couple of winners.In a coupon ad,the company celebrated Disney Pixar's(DIS) release of Ratatouille on DVD and Blue-ray Hi Def.It also offered a five dollar rebate if you buy five cans of Del Monte vegetables and a Ratatouille DVD or Blue-ray.This proved to be a clever choice,since Ratatouille promptly went to the top of the DVD chart.The ad encouraged people to eat healthier and get more exercise.The Wolfe family,YMCA members,are shown preparing a meal with Ratatouille himself."Just One More,"the Del Monte healthy living campaign,is a proud supporter of YMCA Activate America.Nor is Del Monte limiting its health promotion to humans.On the flip side of the ad,we see a cat licking its chops while imagining a shrimp."Think like a cat.Think fresh.Think Meow Mix.Made with REAL Poultry and Seafood!"Meow Mix has its own website,where you can enter a contest and win"a culinary adventure with celebrity chef Cat Coral."DLM has committed itself to the health of the whole family."Foods of Del Monte.Nourishing families.Enriching lives.Every day."These tie-ins and slogans appeal to young families.Del Monte is making itself an element of their lifestyle.With DLM's substantial distribution network and shelf space,they will have no trouble finding the Del Monte foods they want.Carl Marker of IMS lists Del Monte as one of his top five stock picks.In this morning's trading,Del Monte shares were up five cents to 10.02.This consumer staple stock looks appealing in light of a National Association of Business Economics forecast released yesterday.One in five economists surveyed sees greater than a 50% chance of a recession.The median growth forecast is 1.5% for the fourth quarter.Gross Domestic Product for 2008 is pegged at 2.5-down from 2.8.Seventy-eight percent of Americans think the economy is getting worse.