The Business Climate:Confidence An Absolute Factor

Lakshman Achuthan,Research Director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute,thinks the global industrial growth rate is slowing.The question is,does the slowdown turn into an outright recession?Every time you have a slowdown,the risk of recession does go up.
Confidence absolutely factors into Mr.Achuthan's work.It is a large driver of the business cycle,both from the consumer and the corporate side.You have a giant era of pessimism following a crisis.That's exactly what you're seeing now,Mr.Achuthan believes.
Byron Wien,a Vice-President at The Blackstone Group,L.P.,notes that people aren't buying stocks because they're worried there's a structural impairment.We're deleveraging,and on that basis growth is gonna be slow.This is a fear trade.
Since 2000,there's been zero return on equities.One percent return on Treasuries is better than zero.Eighty percent of the time,the market does go up over the course of a decade,but the days of a 15% return over a 20 year period are not coming back,Mr.Wien cautioned.
Treasury yields have been pushed to record lows as investors distrustful of the recovery seek the traditional safe havens.
The Blackstone Group,L.P.(BX)