A Question of Balance

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke,whose four-year term expires in January,appeared before the House Budget Committee last week,assessing the shape of the economy.The Targeted Asset-backed securities Loan Facility,or TALF,has helped open up lending,Mr.Bernanke said,and he is confident that TALF carries minimal risk.As well,the recovery rate for Troubled Asset Relief Program,or TARP,funds should be excellent.We need to restore ourselves to a more balanced fiscal path,however.
Currency and commodity prices are factors in inflation,Mr.Bernanke pointed out,and will be watched carefully.Most indicators point toward stable inflation.There is no sign of a wage/price spiral.Picking a time to remove accommodation,or Federal Reserve actions,is tricky,but monetary accommodations can be unwound,and the decision can be made with political independence.The increase in federal borrowing has been offset by a decrease in private borrowing.
The fear of deflation has receded somewhat,Mr.Bernanke told the House Budget Committee.Retaining the confidence of the financial markets requires that we as Americans take action now to try and restore the fiscal balance.Financial institutions and markets do remain under some stress,but those banks required to raise new capital have made substantial progress.
We need to be on a path of spending and tax measures to cut debt,Mr.Bernanke feels.The stimulus program will have an effect on jobs for two to three years.When the time comes,we will need to raise interest rates,as the Fed is strongly committed to price stability.Q2 economic growth could be negative as inventories are worked off,but the Fed will not monetize debt.Businesses remain cautious and continue to reduce the work force,as the unemployment report on Friday indicated.Overall,Mr.Bernanke,wearing a gray suit,white shirt and red tie with a gold pattern,was sounding a note of cautious optimism,cognizant of the threat of deficit spending to the economy in the long term.

How Things Have Changed

Concern about systemic risk has started to diminish,Mr.Geithner told the Senate Banking Committee,and there are signs that credit conditions have improved,but we still have a long way to go.The economy is still shrinking;the system is still damaged.We're gonna do no more than what it takes to fix the system.Leverage has declined;banks are funding themselves more conservatively.The vast majority of banks have more than enough to be well-capitalized.Restoring lending in the commercial real estate market is critical.Treasury will pick fund managers for the Public-Private Investment Partnership,or PPIP,in the next several weeks.Treasury still has 123.7 billion in Troubled Asset Recovery Program,or TARP, funds available.