Market Fears:It Could Be a Long Way Down

Major global markets largely continued their decline on China and oil collapse fears Monday,although US stock exchanges were closed for the Martin Luther King,Jr. Day holiday.The one exception was the Shanghai Composite Index,which rose 0.47%.The Japanese Nikkei slumped 1.45%,approaching bear territory along with the Australian ASX.The Hong Kong HSI tumbled 1.45%.In Europe,the German DAX fell 0.25%,,while the London FTSE dropped 0.42% and the Paris CAC 40 lost 0.49%.In the commodities space,light sweet crude was down 1.63% and Brent lost 0.55% in anticipation of Iranian production re-entering the market.Natural gas was cheered,however,by the arctic outbreak sweeping into the US East Coast,rising to 2.124,up 1.14%.Gold was virtually flat at 1088.90 an ounce,just a hair down at -0.17%;but silver climbed to 13.94,or 0.32%.
I think there's much more to go,said Bill Fleckenstein,president of Fleckenstein Capital.My real fear is,there's going to be a dislocation,when the market breaks hard and fast.So far this year,it's been sort of a rolling dislocation.I think it's entirely possible to take out the lows of last summer,accelerate and go lower until such time as the Fed panics.*
Intel has been held up by slowing data centre growth.They've got tons of capacity in the place.If people start to waffle over growth,they'll really be in trouble.The world economy is weak.It's a very potent mix and the Fed can't help unless the market goes much lower-so guess what?The market's going much lower.This is much worse than a market correction.I think all these things are in a feedback loop and it's going to get much worse,Mr.Fleckenstein warned.*
iShares Silver Trust(ETF) (SLV)

Analysts See Red

Despite the euphoria which earnings season can spark,many analysts see trouble around the bend.Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital says he is on red alert.Turmoil in the junk bond market may halt the buyout boom and hurt stocks.Richard Bove of Punk Ziegel is sure of his bearish scenario.The underwriting of both corporate bonds and mortgages has been very poor.This definitely trickles down to buyout bonds.With banks only willing to loan 60-70% of buyout costs,rather than 90% as formerly,deals will have to be pulled.They will slow to a trickle,and so will the boost they give to stocks.Phillip Roth of Miller Tabak sees a ragged,maturing trend in this cyclical bull market.A stock market decline will ultimately come because of higher interest rates.The tip-off will be an unexpected financial event.Zachary Oxman of Wisdom Tree Investments would avoid large equity allocations.He sees the subprime mortgage crisis peaking in late 2007-2008.Tech stalwarts such as IBM and Intel(INTC) are still worth considering,as are industrials such as Honeywell(HON) and General Electric(GE).Their global exposure makes them better prospects than companies strictly tied to U.S. consumption.