Commercial Real Estate Check

The CEO of Vornado Realty Trust,Steven Roth,has been analyzing the sector's prospects.After a vicious,very sharp downdraft,Mr.Roth says,we are in the process of seeking a bottom.That will take 3-5 years.There's no doubt that commercial real estate has re-priced lower.Brokers and tenants now feel that we're in a bottom.We want two-year leases;tenants want long term.This is the traditional sign of a bottom.
The last cycle,in the 1990s,lasted 10 years peak-to-peak.From 1988-91,there was a vicious downdraft.We're exactly on track with the historic 90's cycle.That downdraft lasted three years,with re-equitizing and base-building for the next 3-6 years.That's the best time to do acquisitions and load up on capital,which is what Vornado is doing now,Mr.Roth pointed out.
The government's TALF program is going to finance the AAA portion of a real estate loan.By historical standards,that's a fairly low amount.Vornado is in the TALF queue for refinancing.It's a very slow process,Mr.Roth observed.