A Cascade Of Caution

As the hills of Malibu burn,investors are facing their own persistent hazards-many of them so obscure that even the elite are puzzled.John Mack,CEO of Morgan Stanley(MS),says it will take 6-9 months to figure out what the losses are.We are not out of the woods yet.The credit market has improved,but mortgage securities will take a long time to work through.What is the collateral behind these packaged mortgages? That is the challenge.Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson calls for an aggressive response to the housing crisis.It is a significant threat to the U.S. economy,and is still unfolding.The longer housing prices are stagnant or fall,ther greater the penalty on our economy.Scott Sperling of Thomas H. Lee Partners,a private equity firm,says it is a very dangerous time for his business.It is a time for great caution.We haven't seen the last of the troubles.We have improved a little,notes Paul McCulley of Pimco,but the mortgage area is very restricted.There is a lot of downside on the economy.The equity market is a call option.Asset-backed commercial paper remains a problem,and structured investment vehicles still need to be unwound.To Carter Worth of Oppenheimer,it seems we will go back down to where we were before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on 9-18.The market is wobbly and increasingly thin,so why rush to buy? Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James notes a big uptick in credit card debt.That suggests the peak of a credit cycle,and a slowdown to follow.To prepare,some investors are looking to the Vanguard Total Bond Fund(BND) for their protection.Others are buying shares of General Electric(GE),which is relatively cheap at this time,pays a dividend and has an international presence.