Thursday, February 10, 2011

Speaking For Themselves:Arab Intellectuals React to Egypt's History-plus the stock market response

Arab intellectuals in the United States have been responding to the historic events in Egypt.Ashraf Hegazy,the son of an Egyptian diplomat who is Executive Director of the Dubai Initiative at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs in the Harvard Kennedy School,dismissed President Hosni Mubarak's speech on Thursday.I heard nothing new.It's not what the military has been saying all day.It's very dangerous.
The protesters have been calling for a 20 million person march on Friday.That creates a really volatile situation.There might be some major action by the military between now and then.I would question Mubarak's state of mind.At this point,he's digging in his heels,saying he won't leave Egypt alive.
It's certainly possible for him to be arrested by the military.He said he would delegate some of his powers,but he kept referring to himself as part of the transition process.At some point,everyone around him will realize they can't keep following him.I think the people will accept military control during a transition,said Ashraf Hegazy,a scholar in the fields of adaptive leadership and negotiation frameworks in the Middle East.
Aladdin Elaasar,award-winning journalist and author of "The Last Pharaoh of Egypt:Hosny Mubarak" and "Silent Victims:The Plight of Arab and Muslim Americans in Post 9/11 America,"thinks the Egyptian people are very resourceful.This is a new,different generation.Young people make up 60% of the Egyptian population,but the other generations have joined with them.They all have a common demand:the end of this brutal regime.
It was a disaster in the making,the huge gap between the super-rich and the super-poor,40% below the poverty line and 20% unemployment.This is why there are some authoritarian regimes seeing a threat for themselves by what's happening in Egypt.
I think Mubarak's days are numbered.It's just a matter of time,Mr.Elaasar believes.
Asian markets fell on the news,as did U.S. stock futures.
The Egypt exchange traded fund rose 0.45% on Thursday.The fund is nicely diversified,covering industries from banking to food and steel.
Market Vectors Egypt Index Etf(EGPT)
Update:The Egypt exchange traded fund rallied Friday,adding 7.81% by midday at the news of Hosni Mubarak's resignation.The broader U.S. stock market was up a little,rising about 0.25%.
The military has indeed assumed control of Egypt-for how long is not clear yet.What is clear is that the army will expect Egyptians to go back to work and school beginning this weekend.The promising economy can't take much more protesting and celebrating.It's also probable that certain forces of instability in the region are pondering the events in the context of achieving their own goals,which raises a flag of caution amid the euphoric scenes.

No comments: