We hit the trough in Q3 of 2009,says Binky Chada,Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Deutsche Bank.A large mountain of cash has already built up on corporate balance sheets.For Deutsche Bank,the bottom line is:1.buybacks;2.capital expenditure;and 3.dividends.Almost all of the decline in S&P dividends is from the financials.Over the next few years,DB expects to see the financials pay out.They have the cash.It's very important for regulators to get their arms around the issue.
DB recommends a basket of 50 stocks that cuts across the sectors.They have buys on Rowan,Dupont,Genworth,Molson and Schwab.The arguments for the historical patterns are,if anything,strengthened,in Binky Chada's view.
As for the financials paying out,consider that,once the U.S. Treasury sells its shares of Citigroup,the firm will be free to reinstitute its dividend.The shares are to be sold quietly,over a number of months,so as not to disrupt the market.Citigroup has already repaid its government loan.
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