Recession Haunts Wall Street

As Wall Street looks forward to summer,it has warnings of recession in its face.David Rosenberg,Chief North American Economist of Merrill Lynch,points out some startling signs of a downturn.For the past four quarters,the U.S. economy has registered annualized growth of less than 3%.In the past sixty years,this has always foreshadowed recession.Similarly,the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators have declined on a year-to-year basis for three straight months.Every time it did that for the past fifty years-except in 1967-recession followed.Jim Hatzius,Chief U.S. Economist of Goldman Sachs,thinks there is a 25% chance of recession,citing the housing downturn as a burden on the economy.It would seem wise,then,to augment defensive holdings such as consumer staples and health care.